The Curious Mind: Men Are Being Left Behind, The Opportunity in EM, Michael Ovitz on Media, How Networks Really Work, The Future of Medicine, Co-Intelligence, AI Predictions, Charts You Missed...
September 25, 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s discussion: Why Oil Explains Everything, 12 Truths About Power & Respect, The Truth About UFOs, The Story That Changed My World, AI State Of Play, The Future of Space, Quantum Breakthrough....
Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.”
- Confucius
“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”
- Herbert Simon
“The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.”
- Amos Tversky
“Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.”
- Epicurus
“Don’t be the best. Be the only”
- Jerry Garcia
A. What I Learnt This Week:
1. The FT had a good piece titled: Young women are starting to leave men behind.
Men’s education deficit is increasingly becoming an employment, earnings and outcomes gap, with significant repercussions.
Key charts and quotes:
With socio-economic trajectories heading in different directions, a growing minority of young men and women do not see eye to eye. Young male support for populist rightwing parties is on the rise, particularly among those without jobs and degrees. Violent unrest is more likely with a growing pool of young men with little stake in society or their future.
In April 2023, we had discussed Richard Reeves great book, Of Boys and Men on exactly this subject.
2. The Meb Faber spoke to Tiger Cub OG Rob Citrone of Discovery Capital on all things investing. Citrone is an American billionaire hedge fund manager and the co-founder of Discovery Capital Management. He started his career at Fidelity and then at Tiger Management with Julian Robertson.
4 BIG IDEAS:
The coming decade of Latin America:
Rob predicts Latin America will outperform Asia in the next decade, specific opportunities in Argentina, potential turnaround in Venezuela
Importance of political changes (e.g., Argentina's new president Milei)
Contrasts with his bearish outlook on China and parts of Asia
Shift to a new market regime:
End of the easy money era, transition from QE to QT globally
Expectation of lower returns and higher volatility across asset classes
Bonds may not provide the same portfolio protection as in the past
Geopolitical risks as potential market catalysts:
Highest level of geopolitical tension in decades
Potential for geopolitical events to trigger the next major market crash
Importance of factoring geopolitical risks into investment strategies
3. The All-In Summit hosted Michael Ovitz. He’s a very prominent figure in the entertainment industry, best known as the co-founder of Creative Artists Agency (CAA) in 1975.
After leaving CAA in 1995, he briefly served as President of The Walt Disney Company. Later, Ovitz transitioned into technology and venture capital, advising companies like Palantir and becoming involved in Silicon Valley investments.
Throughout his career, Ovitz has been recognized for his business acumen, ability to spot trends, and influence across entertainment and technology sectors.
5 BIG IDEAS:
The Power of Innovative Business Models: Ovitz's career demonstrates the impact of innovative approaches, from revolutionizing talent representation with team-based "packaging" at CAA to helping tech companies like Palantir enter new markets. He emphasizes the importance of finding new ways to create value and disrupt existing industries.
The Streaming Revolution's Impact on Hollywood: Ovitz argues that streaming has fundamentally altered the entertainment industry's economics, shifting from a profit-sharing model to upfront payments. This change has "destroyed the Legacy business," transforming how content is valued and compensated.
The AI Challenge in Creative Industries: While impressed by AI capabilities, Ovitz sees it as a double-edged sword for entertainment. He's concerned about AI's impact on jobs and questions its ability to create content with genuine emotion, highlighting the tension between technological advancement and preserving the human element in creative work.
The Decline of Intuitive Leadership in Hollywood: Ovitz contrasts the era of gut-based decision making by visionary studio heads with today's data-driven, corporate approach. He believes this shift has led to a decline in innovative, culturally significant productions, emphasizing the value of intuition and risk-taking in creative industries.
Evolving Content Consumption and Cultural Impact: Ovitz observes a significant shift in audience behavior, driven by technology and social media. He notes the trend towards shorter, personalized content and expresses concern about the diminishing appreciation for classic cinema and shared cultural experiences. This change reflects a broader transformation in how media influences and reflects society.
4. How Networks Really Work by Henry Oliver discussing two important properties people rarely talk about: The Power at The Edges and Degrees of Influence.
Two key quotes:
"Often the best place to be in a network is neither the limit nor the centre, but somewhere in between. Albert Einstein was building on the work of several other physicists, recombining the ideas of thinkers like Ernst Mach, Max Planck, Hendrick Lorentz, Henri Poincaré — as one sociologist said, those others were ‘too familiar with, and too committed to, what had come before to see how Einstein’s new combination could be something greater than the sum of its parts’. Einstein was sufficiently detached to make the insight. He was familiar with the ideas but still willing to reinvent them. Had he been right at the core, he might have been too attached to the prevailing consensus."
Knowing who to connect with is not the same as having the time, energy or inclination to make the connection. You need to find the right people and ask them the right thing at the right time. They need to want to help and be influential in the right way.
It is probably true that we are all connected by six degrees of separation — but not everyone that we are connected to is going to do us a favour. It’s a small world, but a busy one. The people you know might connect you to opportunities, but it’s not guaranteed. And those opportunities might not be very significant.
5. 13D / WILTW had a good report about the changing role of RNA in medicine. RNA is a versatile molecule that's fundamental to how our cells function, develop, and respond to their environment. Its diverse roles in biological processes make it both a key player in human health and a promising target for new medical treatments.
But firstly what is RNA and why is it relevant:
RNA (Ribonucleic Acid) Basics:
Definition: RNA is a nucleic acid, similar to DNA, that plays crucial roles in biological processes within all living cells.
Structure: Like DNA, RNA is made up of nucleotides, but it's usually single-stranded (unlike DNA's double helix) and uses the sugar ribose instead of deoxyribose.
Types: There are several types of RNA, including messenger RNA (mRNA), transfer RNA (tRNA), and ribosomal RNA (rRNA), each with specific functions.
Where and Why Is it relevant in Humans?
Protein Synthesis:
mRNA carries genetic information from DNA to ribosomes, where proteins are made.
Gene Regulation and Enzyme Activity:
Various RNA molecules help control which genes are active or inactive and can catalyze chemical reactions.
Immune Response:
Certain RNA molecules play roles in the immune system, helping detect and respond to pathogens.
The 3 BIG IDEAS from 13D:
RNA Revolution in Medicine: RNA technology is emerging as a groundbreaking approach in medicine, offering potential treatments for previously incurable diseases. It's rapidly evolving and showing promise across various therapeutic areas.
Versatility and Programmability: Unlike traditional drugs that can only target a limited number of proteins, RNA therapies can target virtually any gene. They're highly versatile and can be quickly modified, making them "programmable drugs" that are faster to develop and more flexible than conventional treatments.
Multiple Types of RNA Therapies: There are several types of RNA-based treatments, each with unique applications:
mRNA therapies (like COVID-19 vaccines)
RNAi and antisense therapies (to reduce unwanted proteins)
Aptamers (to alter protein function)
B. The Science and Technology Section:
1. Ethan Mollick, Associate Professor of Management at The Wharton School, has written a great book “Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI”.
I read it in one sitting.
Mollick’s 4 Essential Rules for Integrating AI into Work and Life:
Always invite AI to the table: “You don’t know what AI is good for or bad for inside your job or your industry. Nobody knows. The only way to figure it out is disciplined experimentation. Just use it a lot for everything you possibly can.”
Be the human in the loop: “The AI is better than a lot of people in a lot of jobs, but not at their whole job, right? And so, whatever you’re best at, you’re almost certainly better than the AI is.”
Treat AI like a human: AI models are “trained on human language, and they’re refined on human language. And it just turns out that they respond best to human speech. Telling it and giving tasks like a person often gets you where you need to go.” … (but tell it what kind of human to be) “AI models often need context to operate. Otherwise, they produce very generic results. So, a persona is an easy way to give context. ‘You are an expert marketing manager in India, focusing on technology ventures that work with the US’ will put it in a different headspace than if you say you’re a marketer or if you don’t give it any instructions at all.”
Assume this is the worst AI you will ever use: “We’re early, early days still. I mean, there’s a lot of stuff still being built.”
It’s packed with great practical chapters including:
AI as a Coworker
AI as a Tutor
AI as a Coach
2. Artificial intelligence has dominated headlines and markets for the better part of two years.
Can the technology live up to its lofty expectations?
Capital Group manages over $2.6trn in assets and their U.S. economist Jared Franz discussed AI’s potential to transform economies and labor markets, the vast amount of resources AI infrastructure requires, and why he thinks an AI winter is on the horizon, in a recent podcast titled AI Revolution.
It’s good big picture perspective.
3. Ted Gioia, Honest Broker had a great post titled Eleven Predictions: Here's What AI Does Next.
It is a little dark!!
Key quote:
"But it’s going to get even more interesting, and very soon. That’s because the next step in AI has arrived—the unleashing of AI agents. And like the gods, these AI agents will give us everything we ask for. Up until now, AI was all talk and no action. These charming bots answered your questions, and spewed out text, but were easy to ignore. That’s now changing. AI agents will go out in the world and do things. That’s their new mission. It’s like giving unreliable teens the keys to the family car. Up until now we’ve just had to deal with these resident deadbeats talking back, but now they are going to smash up everything in their path. But AI agents will be even worse than the most foolhardy teen. That’s because there will be millions of these unruly bots on our digital highways."
C. News and Charts You Might Have Missed:
1. Powerful techniques to remember more
2. Don’t let the volatility shake you out (not financial advice).
3. If You Are Always Too Busy, Check These Out
D. The Story That Changed My World
One of the people who’s been a guide for me as I think about growth and transformation is Tom Morgan. He’s been on his own journey to figure things out and runs The Leading Edge, he calls it a Network For Personal Evolution.
I’ve learnt a bunch of things from Tom that have helped me:
Curiosity as a Catalyst for Holistic Transformation: I particularly loved is idea being a "curiosity sherpa" guiding others through transformative experiences by exposing them to new ideas and perspectives.
The idea of "following your bliss" reframed as finding the intersection between personal passion and societal need, rather than mere self-indulgence.
The Hero's Journey as a Meta-Pattern for Individual and Collective Evolution: Key stages like the "call to adventure" and "crossing the threshold" are related to real-life transitions, such as career changes or retirement. The recurrence of this pattern across cultures and time periods is suggested to indicate its fundamental importance to human development and societal progress.
Rebalancing Cognitive Approaches for a Complex World: I’ve been learning to balance my Left-brain thinking with growing my Right-brain thinking (associated with contextual understanding, intuition, and holistic problem-solving – skills increasingly crucial in a complex world). This isn't about dismissing analytical thinking, but rather integrating it with more intuitive, exploratory approaches.
Wealth as a Vehicle for Meaningful Exploration and Contribution: I’ve learnt to reframe wealth from being an end goal to a means for creating space for personal and societal transformation.
I am hosting a small virtual event with Tom on October 8th 12pm EST to discuss all of these ideas, and how we can make our lives more meaningful, filled with curiosity and bliss.
Would you like to join 20 of us?
P.S. Could you do me a favor ? This email takes many hours to put together, including hours of sourcing, curating and writing. If it is helpful to you, then do me a favor and hit the “heart” button so I know it’s useful to you.
AI as a friend.
I would love to join the virtual event your hosting on October 18th!