The Curious Mind: The Future of Science, Marko On Markets, Cumulative Knowledge, The Story That Changes The World, Autonomous AI, The One Thing Bigger Than AI, Curious Minds Events....
September 11, 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s discussion: The Way Of Integrity, How To Stop Wasting Your Time, Space Race and UAP, Digital Twins, What I Learnt Using AI, How To Pick Stocks Like A Pro....
I am in Singapore, is there anyone I should meet?
Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“The graveyards are full of indispensable men.”
- Charles de Gaulle
“Character, like a photograph, develops in darkness.”
- Yousuf Karsh
“All of our miseries are nothing but attachment.”
- Osho
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.”
- Richard Feynman
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
1. Super conversation between Tyler Cowen and Philip Ball discussing big questions like: “Is Science making any progress?”, “How to reconcile Science and Religion?”, “Where do Metaphors lead us astray and where can Myths help?”.
Philip Ball is an award-winning science writer who has penned over 30 books on a dizzying variety of subjects. Holding degrees in chemistry from Oxford and physics from the University of Bristol. He was a former editor at Nature for two decades and a regular contributor to a range of publications and broadcast outlets.
Ball’s work exemplifies the rare combination of scientific depth and accessibility, cementing his reputation as a premier science communicator.
This conversation was a terrific integrated view of the challenges in modern science.
They underscore the interconnected nature of scientific progress, cultural evolution, and societal understanding of complex phenomena.
5 BIG IDEAS:
The Multifaceted Challenges of Modern Scientific Progress:
a) Quantity vs. Quality: Despite more scientists globally, productivity per researcher appears to be declining.
b) Institutional Constraints: Increased bureaucratization may stifle innovative, high-risk research.
c) Funding Dynamics: Short-term, commercially-driven projects often overshadow long-term, fundamental research.
d) Complexity Barrier: As easier discoveries are made, remaining questions become increasingly complex and interdisciplinary.
The Evolving Interplay of Science, Religion, and Culture: The conversation provides a nuanced historical perspective on science-religion relations:
a) Complementary Coexistence: Many scientists historically viewed their work as exploring God's creation.
b) Motivational Force: Religious beliefs often drove scientific inquiry rather than hindering it.
c) Modern Misconceptions: The idea of inherent science-religion conflict is largely a recent construct.
Paradigm Shift in Understanding Biological Complexity: The discussion challenges reductionist views in biology, advocating for a more holistic, systems-level approach:
a) Beyond Genetic Determinism: Most traits and diseases result from complex gene-environment interactions.
b) Limitations of Gene-Centric Views: While useful in some contexts, they fail to capture the full complexity of biological systems.
c) Emerging Challenges: This complexity limits the straightforward application of technologies like CRISPR for common diseases.
The Double-Edged Sword of Scientific Metaphors: The conversation explores how metaphors both illuminate and potentially mislead:
a) Cognitive Tools: Metaphors like "selfish gene" or "brain as computer" can aid understanding.
b) Conceptual Limitations: Over-reliance on metaphors can constrain thinking and lead to oversimplification.
c) Evolving Models: As science progresses, we need more nuanced, flexible metaphors to capture increasing complexity.
The Enduring Power and Evolution of Myths in Technological Society: The discussion reveals myths as dynamic cultural tools:
a) Anxiety Exploration: Modern myths, like superhero stories, help society process complex fears and changes.
b) Technological Integration: Emerging technologies like AI are becoming focal points for new mythologies.
c) Cultural Crystallization: The "mythic" status of narratives typically requires decades to solidify.
2. My favourite market strategist Marko Papic at BCA penned a few great notes titled: After Recession…Rotation and Trade Wars Don’t Work and In A Multipolar World.
The 4 BIG IDEAS:
Multi-faceted global economic transition: U.S. market dominance is waning, with a projected rotation from U.S. equities (particularly tech) to international markets. A "soft landing" for the global economy is possible, with growth potentially bottoming in many non-U.S. markets. China's economic challenges are acknowledged, but a stabilization is plausible within 6-12 months.
Recommendation: Strategically increase allocation to international equities, especially European industrials. Reduce U.S. stock exposure, particularly in mega-cap tech. Seasonality and positioning are highlighted as near-term risks for equity markets.
AI hype cycle and tech sector vulnerability: While recognizing AI's long-term transformative potential, current valuations appear unsustainable. He argues that incumbents rarely successfully integrate new, disruptive technologies.
Recommendation: Approach AI-related investments cautiously. Consider reducing overall tech exposure and look for AI opportunities outside traditional tech sectors.
U.S. dollar trajectory in a multipolar world: USD weakness is predicted, even in a potential U.S. recession scenario, due to current overvaluation and the emerging multipolar global order. The reports challenge the conventional wisdom that the USD always strengthens during global economic stress.
Recommendation: Go long EUR/USD, maintain long JPY positions. Increase gold allocation as a hedge. Consider this dollar view when making international investment decisions. Differentiate between cyclical fluctuations and longer-term secular trends, particularly in commodities and capital expenditure.
Evolving U.S.-China economic dynamics: Complete U.S.-China decoupling is viewed as unlikely and potentially counterproductive for U.S. interests. He suggest that increased economic engagement, rather than isolation, may be the optimal U.S. strategy for maintaining leverage over China.
Recommendation: Remain open to investment opportunities involving U.S.-China economic cooperation. Monitor policy shifts that may indicate a move towards re-engagement.
3. Cumulative vs. Cyclical Knowledge. In one of his recent articles, Morgan Housel wrote:
"I can imagine a world in 50 years where things like cancer and heart disease are either non-existent or effectively controlled. I cannot ever imagine a world where economic volatility is tamed and people stop making financial decisions they eventually regret – no matter how much history of past mistakes we have to study."
That's because scientific knowledge is cumulative, and financial knowledge is cyclical. Finances involve feelings. Science involves facts. Science can improve by leaps and bounds over generations, but finance will only improve marginally, if at all.
I think the best takeaway is that you can be above average if you increase the speed at which you acquire cyclical knowledge—wisdom by another name.
What's the best way to do this?: Read like crazy, and seek advice from older people you admire. Then actually apply the advice.
Hopefully you have noticed that The Curious Mind focuses primarily on cumulative or timeless knowledge and tries to not talk about the ephemeral.
B. The Story That Changes The World
I am in a liminal phase in my life where I feel a transformation happening. One of my guides in this phase has been Tom Morgan.
He went through his own career journey from being lost in the wilderness of life & career, and then re-discovering his purpose.
In this captivating exploration (I’ve read it twice), Tom interweaves mythology, cutting-edge neuroscience, and complex systems theory to present a vision for individual and collective evolution.
Tom argues that the Hero's Journey, far from being mere storytelling, is a universal map for paradigm shifts in complex systems—including our lives, societies, and the world at large.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
Our world is dangerously imbalanced towards left-brain thinking, resulting in profound disconnection from ourselves, each other, and our environment. This imbalance is at the root of our global "metacrisis."
Curiosity is not just a personal trait, but a powerful evolutionary attractor, guiding us towards greater complexity and wholeness in our lives and societies. Tom gave this great talk on Curiosity at the last Sohn Conference:
Evolution trends towards complexity, defined as highly differentiated parts integrated into a cohesive whole. This applies to economies, ecosystems, and human development alike.
By courageously following our unique "bliss" or purpose, we can find our niche where personal fulfillment meets societal need—a key to addressing our collective challenges.
Reconnecting with our right-brain perspective can lead to more empathy, social trust, and positive-sum thinking, potentially reversing destructive global trends.
This isn't just an intellectual exercise—it's a call to adventure in your life.
A few ideas to embark on your own hero's journey:
Pay attention to your bodily sensations and intuition as guide
Remain open to synchronicities and environmental feedback
Cultivate curiosity and follow what truly excites you
Strive for "effortless action" by aligning with deeper forces
Prioritise reconnection—to others, to nature, and to your own purpose
Look out for our zoom event with Tom in mid October.
C. The Science and Technology Section:
1. Andrej Karpathy is AI royalty. He was a founding team member of OpenAI and the former Tesla Autopilot leader.
Andrej discusses where AI is headed and his focus today at Eureka Labs and his insights into AI-driven education and what young people should study to prepare for the reality ahead.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
AI as a catalyst for human potential: Karpathy envisions AI, particularly in education, as a tool to unlock unprecedented human capabilities. He believes AI-powered personalized learning could push the boundaries of human achievement, potentially revealing limits of human potential we haven't yet explored.
The evolution towards more efficient AI architectures: Karpathy predicts a shift towards smaller, more efficient AI models. He suggests that future AI systems might consist of specialized "cognitive cores" with as few as 1 billion parameters, working in parallel like a corporate structure.
AI integration as an "exocortex": Karpathy explores the concept of AI becoming an extension of human cognition - an "exocortex." This integration could blur the lines between human and artificial intelligence, fundamentally changing our understanding of cognition, learning, and even human identity.
The tension between centralized and open-source AI: Karpathy highlights the ongoing struggle between proprietary, centralized AI systems and open-source, decentralized alternatives. This tension reflects broader societal debates about technology ownership, access, and control.
Redefining education and work in a post-AGI world: Karpathy suggests that in a world with advanced AI, our approach to education and work may fundamentally change. Learning might become more akin to entertainment or self-improvement, similar to physical exercise.
2. Patrick O’Shaughnessy at Invest Like The Best spoke to Bret Taylor. Bret is the co-founder of Sierra and chairman of the board at OpenAI. They cover his legendary experience rewriting Google Maps in one weekend, the myriad applications of AI agents beyond chat bots, and the one question every company should ask itself.
The 3 BIG IDEAS:
The Dawn of the Agent Era: AI agents are poised to become a fundamental part of business and personal technology ecosystems. Taylor outlines three categories: company-branded conversational AI for customer interactions, persona-based agents for specific job functions, and personal agents for individual assistance. This shift is comparable to the advent of websites and mobile apps, potentially transforming how we interact with technology and businesses.
Transforming Business Models and Operational Structures: AI's capacity for automation and enhanced productivity is forcing companies to reevaluate their operational structures and competitive advantages. Taylor suggests that incumbents must proactively adopt AI both internally and externally to avoid disruption from AI-native startups. He emphasizes the need for companies to focus on the core value they provide customers, rather than being constrained by existing delivery models.
The Changing Landscape of Human Productivity: Taylor discusses how AI tools, particularly in fields like software engineering, are dramatically amplifying human capabilities. This could lead to significant productivity gaps between those who effectively leverage AI and those who don't. He also touches on the potential for AI to democratize certain skills and reduce barriers in creative fields.
3. In August 2023, when we were first discussing GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, I said this will be a bigger theme than AI, and while the AI has overshadowed GLP’s for the last year, I think the tide is turning.
Azeem Azhar at Exponential View had a good post titled: Today’s most important technology discussing GLP-1 agonists.
D. The Curious Mind Events Series
How Do Professional Investors Approach Investing Differently?
Please join me in an exclusive discussion with Stephen Clapham on Sept 23rd 12pm EST.
Following a 25-year career as an investment analyst, investor and partner and head of research at two multi-billion hedge funds, Stephen decided to put that experience to good use and offer training to professional investment analysts and portfolio managers. More recently, his awesome online school offers training to private investors as well.
He also wrote this great book:
and he runs the Behind The Balance Sheet podcast, and is the founder of Behind The Balance Sheet substack.
We will be covering BIG QUESTIONS that will make you a better thinker and investor.
We will limit the group to 30 people in a webinar format - we have 10 slots left.
Would you like to join?
P.S. Could you do me a favor ? This email takes many hours to put together, including hours of sourcing, curating and writing. If it is helpful to you, then do me a favor and hit the “heart” button so I know it’s useful to you.
Excellent, thanks for this!
Well done again. So much ground covered.