A Few Things: How GPT Can Change Your Job, Living Longer, Blackrock on Tech, Marko on Markets, Tulchinsky on Prediction Tech, Elon Musk with Lex, Coatue's AI Report, Sam Altman at Cambridge....
November 17, 2023
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
You can check out last week’s edition here: The Paradox of Happiness, Doing Deep Work, How To Read, Better Children's Education, Opportunity in Obesity Drugs, Larry Gagosian, Maubossin on Shareholder Returns....
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal, because it helps new readers understand if this is valuable and keeps me motivated.
Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“A man is not old until regrets take the place of dreams.”
- John Barrymore
“Education is not the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire.”
- William Butler Yeats
“Faced with a choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof.”
- John Kenneth Galbraith
“If you want to grow as a person, you really have to make friends with pain. Embrace the discomfort. Enjoy the struggle.”
- Arnold Schwarzenegger
“Be ruthless about what you ignore. Time, energy, and resources are so precious. You have to be ferocious about cutting your priorities—more than you realize and certainly more than is comfortable.
You can only deeply commit to a few things. One or two? Maybe three?
Every pretty good, sorta nice, kinda fun thing you abandon is like shedding a weighted vest that lets you move at top speed. You were so busy focusing on how much you could carry, you never realized you could run this fast."
- James Clear
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
1. How ChatGPT Can Change the Future of Jobs—Starting With Your Own.
This episode of Plain English is about thinking practically about the AI revolution. Yes, it may one day usher in some now unthinkable utopia or dystopia. But in the meantime, our imperfect world exists, and your imperfect job exists, and you face a forced choice: Should you use this technology? And if so, how do you make it work for you?
Kevin Roose, a tech columnist for The New York Times and the host of the podcast 'Hard Fork,' speaks with Derek Thompson of the Atlantic, about how generative AI tools are already changing his job and others, including in medicine, consulting, and software development.
2. Dr. Gabrielle Lyon, a functional medicine physician and Founder of the Institute of Muscle-Centric Medicine, discusses the importance of muscle health for longevity and quality of life with Chris Williamson.
Topics covered include the risks of being over fat or under-muscled, the significance of exercise compared to nutrition, strategies for increasing protein intake, the benefits of staying active during pregnancy, the impact of sleep on muscle building and health, and predictors of longevity and muscle measurement discrepancies.
Muscle health is more important for longevity and overall well-being than excess weight and fat loss.
Skeletal muscle plays a critical role in aging and maintaining optimal functioning.
High-quality protein intake, ranging from 0.7 to 1 gram per pound of ideal body weight, supports muscle growth and repair.
Muscle-centric medicine recognizes muscle as an essential organ with various benefits for overall health and longevity.
Sleep is crucial for muscle protein synthesis and maintaining muscle health, while training during periods of sleep deprivation can mitigate some negative effects
3. In a conversation moderated by Goldman Sachs’ Michael Brandmeyer, BlackRock’s Tony Kim, head of tech sector fundamental equities, shares his views on the technology ecosystem, public and private valuations, and the impact of artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
They explore the connectivity of sectors, the evolution of tech, the influence of AI on the industry, valuation of private markets, characteristics of successful tech teams, talent acquisition in finance, comparing market corrections, and the dawn of a new intelligence era.
4. Marko Papic at ClockTower Group shared his latest:
The receding of the recession narrative is itself… recessionary. The move in 10-year yields was driven by optimism and enthusiasm for the economy, but therein lies the risk to growth. With long-term bond yields stabilizing at 4.5% – for now – the question is whether the move will lead to a growth slowdown and financial accidents. It is inevitable that it will. As such, we are far more worried about the first half of 2024 than the latter. Our Chart of the Month suggests that the US economy has already overcome – for the first time in fifty years – the rise of 10-year yields by 100bps! The divergence in the 12-month change of manufacturing PMI and long-term yields is somewhat extraordinary and suggests that not everything is as it has been in the past.
Our high conviction view for the next six months is that the Fed is finished with rate hikes, nay… that the Fed may even cut in the next six months. There will be a plethora of bearish data, including a potential shallow recession induced by corporate capex cuts. In addition, the US presidential election is setting up to be an extraordinary affair, with multiple third-party candidates upending the contest. It is highly unlikely that the Fed ignores this reality. However, as the Fed leans towards leniency, it may very well set growth alight. We remind our readers of our view that US households have the healthiest balance sheets they have had in decades. As such, any pivot towards rate cuts would restart the high nominal growth cycle we are living through.
5. The Age of Prediction by Christopher Mason and Igor Tulchinsky is about two powerful and symbiotic trends: the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live.
Igor runs a $9 billion hedge fund (WorldQuant), which analyzes millions of pieces of data around the world to predict stocks, whether something will happen tomorrow, or an hour from now, or 10 seconds from now.
Christopher Mason is geneticist and computational biologist who has been a Principal Investigator and Co-investigator of many NASA missions and projects.
Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections.
As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences.
The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks—genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally.
6. Elon Musk was on the Lex Fridman show discussing the Military-Industrial Complex, China, xAI Grok, Aliens, God, Dystopian worlds, AI and useful compute per watt, AI regulation, 2024 presidential elections, Tesla's Autopilot and Optimus robot.
7. Alix Pasquet is one of the smartest and deepest investment thinkers I know. He presented at Yale University on Idea "Ingredients". What are the "ingredients" that make a GREAT investment idea?
B. The Technology Section:
1. The Coatue Artificial Intelligence Full Report provides a detailed analysis of key technological areas: AI adoption, cloud data centers, semiconductors, and the concept of an AI Super App.
Here are some of my favourite slides:
2. Sam Altman & OpenAI accepting the 2023 Hawking Fellowship Award at the Cambridge Union.
Packed with goodies, here are some key bits: What differentiates OpenAI from other companies: 12:27 What differentiates Elon Musk's approach to yours: 16:17 Can you reflect on the progress towards AGI so far: 17:19 In 10 years time, what does success look like: 19:14 What is your advice to young people in the face of an AI revolution: 19:52 How do universities need to adapt: 21:45 What do we do to prevent a worst-case scenario: 32:50 How do you decide which values make AI ethical: 35:07 Where would you advise young people to go to make scientific discoveries: 37:28 How can you mitigate against losing critical thinking: 39:20 How can we ensure experts are distributed across development, alignment and policy: 42:36 Do you worry you've sacrificed democracy: 44:15 What is your take on open source models: 47:30 What is your definition of consciousness and how far are we from a conscious model: 50:44 What is your view of smaller models: 52:53 Do you think the safety of AI is compatible with more abundant energy: 53:47 What is your approach to responsible scaling in the coming months: 55:05 Interest in longevity science: 57:39 Do you want AI to be descriptive or prescriptive with respect to human rights: 59:08 Is there another breakthrough that's needed to reach AGI: 1:01:45
3. Eric Newcomer spoke with Chris Miller, the author of Chip War, about the rise of Nvidia.
While OpenAI gets the lion’s share of the public adulation for the sudden excitement about generative intelligence, Nvidia’s H100 chips are powering much of the generative AI frenzy. Nvidia’s stock has climbed over 200% over the past 12 months. And the company has become a key investor in generative AI startups.
Miller (who comes on the show around the 41-minute mark) talks through Nvidia’s history and the geopolitical war raging over the production of chips.
4. Competition is a core part of human nature, and it can drive us to extraordinary feats. But when it goes wrong, the results can be devastating.
Poker champion and science communicator Liv Boeree introduces us to "Moloch's trap" — the dark force of game theory driving many of humanity's biggest social problems, which is now threatening to derail the AI industry.
Thank you Brandon G for flagging.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
This week’s guilty pleasure. A Dark TV series based on Edgar Allen Poe’s work.
Have a great weekend.