A Few Things: Live Longer Feel Better, Tail End, Hedonic Escalator, Living Fuller Lives, Yuval Hariri on the Future, Ghattas On the Middle East, AI Industry Structure, War On The West, Entertainment..
January 19 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
Here is last week’s discussion: What To Expect In 2024, The Top Risks, Galloway's Predictions, Michael Ovitz on Knowledge Is Power, The One Thing, Intriguing Science Breakthroughs of 2023, Charts & News You Missed...
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Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“We don’t receive wisdom; we must discover it for ourselves after a journey that no one can take for us or spare us.”
- Marcel Proust
"Everything can be taken from a person but one thing: the last of the human freedoms - to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way."
Viktor Frankl on Freedom
"Nature loves courage. You make the commitment and nature will respond to that commitment by removing impossible obstacles. Dream the impossible dream and the world will not grind you under, it will lift you up. This is the trick. This is what all these teachers and philosophers who really counted, who really touched the alchemical gold, this is what they understood. This is how magic is done. By hurling yourself into the abyss and discovering it's a feather bed."
- Terence McKenna on Courage
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
1. I would love for you to live a long healthy life and so I am putting this conversation on Triggernometry with Longevity Expert Gary Brecka first.
It is worth listening to twice. It’s packed with simple goodies that I hope will inform and transform your life.
5 Key Ideas:
Our current medical system excels at crisis intervention, like treating injuries or illness. However, it does not effectively promote optimal health or address underlying causes of poor health. There is over-reliance on treating just symptoms rather than deficiencies, and medications often just mask issues while creating side effects. We need to shift to more preventative health based on providing the body the proper raw materials it evolved to utilise.
The majority of common diseases are not caused primarily by genetically inherited conditions as often believed. In many cases, suboptimal gene expression leads to an inability to properly use certain nutrients. Giving the body the deficient vitamins, minerals, amino acids, etc. that it lacks can profoundly improve conditions thought to be incurable "diseases." We have nutrient-deficiency-driven pandemics, not pandemics of genetically inevitable illnesses.
Mental health disorders like anxiety, depression, ADHD and more don't signify broken brains, but rather nutritional deficiencies that lead to unbalanced brain chemistry. Making sure the gut can properly synthesize key neurotransmitters, and providing the right nutrients to optimize brain function, can effectively eliminate supposed mental illnesses. They reflect lack of mental fitness from factors like poor diet and lifestyle rather than permanent disorders.
Extremely simple yet powerful habits can build resilience from hormetic stress: sunlight exposure, breathwork, earthing/grounding and cold exposure. Also vital is avoiding toxin intake from sources like municipal tap water, GMOs and heavily processed seed oils. These easy practices profoundly boost immunity and regulate the nervous system with no cost.
Blindly taking supplements without knowing what you specifically require is misguided. Obtaining individualised data through advanced testing like genetic methylation panels allows targeted support of your biochemical individuality. Then nutrients repair deficiencies creating the optimal environment for whole-body health and homeostasis.
"When I graduated high school, I had already used 93% of my in-person time with my parents. Now I'm cherishing the last 5% of that time. We're nearing the end."
There are many relationships in our lives where we are in the Tail End. Use the time wisely.
3. We have discussed Hedonic Treadmills before, but I just learned about Hedonic Escalators from George Mack.
Firstly a reminder on the Hedonic Treadmill: No matter what occurs to us we always revert to our baseline level happiness.
For example, we set goals and expectations—getting the next big promotion, completing a complex task or finishing up a really big project. We run to gain those things, often working every waking hour and going to extremes to improve ourselves imagining all along the way how happy we would be when we achieve this goal.
But once we succeed or reach that destination, instead of being euphoric, the feeling is more of a relief—getting a closure on all the effort leading up to this moment. The happiness—if it does show up—is only momentary, often lasting a few hours, days or sometimes even a week.
Hedonic Escalators: Life events or activities that don’t adapt to a stable baseline. Three great examples:
Living near great friends - This seems to be the opposite of a hedonic treadmill. The more you live near great friends, the more the relationship deepens – increasing your happiness further.
Good night's sleep - It’s really hard to adapt to a good night's sleep. And if you do, all you need is one bad night of sleep to reset the appreciation.
Learning - The more you learn, the more you enjoy future learning. It compounds as more nodes get connected. And the more you learn, the quicker you can learn in the future. It’s a hedonic flywheel that keeps getting better and better.
A positive hedonic escalator is an infinite game. It’s a drug with little to no tolerance for adaptation or comedown.
If you were to create a dashboard for human happiness, you’d optimise for time spent in hedonic escalators.
Spend some time thinking about what your hedonic escalators are.
4. One of my favourite writers, Arthur Brooks at the Atlantic wrote a piece titled: Kierkegaard’s Three Ways to Live More Fully. It’s a problem I fight regularly.
Key Insights:
People hate boredom and will go to great lengths to avoid it. However, realizing your life is boring can be an opportunity for growth rather than escape. Søren Kierkegaard proposed 3 stages of life based on how bored/disaffected you are:
Aesthetic stage: seeking new experiences and pleasures
Ethical stage: making commitments that create meaning, like marriage
Religious stage: connecting life to a transcendent purpose
Instead of running from boredom, use it as a signal to go deeper into your current life and commitments. Make the "leap" to the next stage. Apply Kierkegaard's stages to any area of life - work, hobbies, relationships. Move from dabbling to commitment to transcendent purpose.
Boredom is not necessarily something to escape, but rather a doorway to finding more meaning, commitment, and purpose in your existing life and relationships. Lean into boredom rather than running away.
5. Yuval Noah Hariri spoke to Steven Bartlett. Lots on AI and the future of humanity in its cyborg form.
The main message I took from it was his advice on how important it is to take a step away from the information barrage and simply breathe, process and think about things. Our brains are not built to be permanently switched on. The regular dopamine and excitement is actually bad for us. His concept of an information holiday definitely appeals to me!
5 Key Insights:
AI and bioengineering may transform humans into something unrecognizable. Harari believes technological upgrades to human bodies and minds will eventually change Homo sapiens into new kinds of entities like cyborgs. This could happen in the next few hundred years as we utilize tools like genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces, and AI. The resulting non-organic beings may have little in common with humans today.
AI poses multiple dangers that require caution and wise policies. Harari is concerned algorithms may take over finance and governance in complex ways beyond human understanding. AI also risks manipulating people by hacking brains, forging fake relationships, and controlling information. Automation threatens many jobs, requiring society to assist with retraining. Overall we must thoughtfully shape AI to avoid relinquishing too much power.
Information overload harms humans while algorithms compete for our attention. Our brains didn't evolve to handle endless excitation and constant new information. We need more peace, boredom, and time away from addictive apps and media. Corporations exploit engagement for profit, but human health requires controlling information consumption.
Studying history shows civilizations thrive when elites tackle crises, or they can face revolution. Today's challenges like climate change and disruptive technology require current elites to make difficult reforms. If leaders fail to act responsibly, historically the result is replacement of elites, uprisings of the masses, or collapse.
More global cooperation is essential to avoid destructive conflict between nations. Some leaders have damaged the postwar system regulating international relations without proposing alternatives. This risks rising nationalism, arms races, and war. We must relearn principles of universal order and institutions for peace.
6. One of my favourite thinkers “Citrini” (I’ve shared his prior work on GLPs and AI) was on the Bloomberg Odd Lots show discussing “What’s Hot at JPM Health Conference”.
Key Ideas:
GLP-1 drugs and their continued success. GLP-1 diabetes drugs like those from Novo Nordisk continue to gain traction, with demand far outpacing supply. Future is combining GLP-1 drugs with other agents to both enhance weight loss and prevent muscle loss.
AI/technology impacts on drug development. Companies are using AI to discover and optimise drug candidates, almost like a "drug GPT." AI is coming up more and more at healthcare conferences as a way to speed up and improve R&D.
7. The amazing Kim Ghattas journalist and author of the seminal book on the Middle East - The Black Wave was on FT Rachman Review podcast, “Discussing can a wider Middle East war be averted?”.
Key Insights:
While major players like Iran, US and Israel want to avoid a wider regional war, the risk of miscalculation leading to escalation grows as clashes and tensions persist across multiple fronts. Flashpoints include Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen.
Iran may be using escalations by allies like Houthis and Shia militias in Iraq/Syria to gain leverage and push back against US influence, while avoiding direct confrontation itself. There's a sense Iran owes proxy payback for Soleimani killing.
De-escalating Gaza conflict is pivotal to easing other regional tensions before they take on a life of their own. A diplomatic deal on Lebanon-Israel border issue specifically could set a precedent. But the longer Gaza fighting continues, the less likely a peaceful trajectory becomes across the Middle East.
B. The Science and Technology Section
1. My favourite blog on Semiconductors is Fabricated Knowledge. Doug O’Laughlin had a good post titled: AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?
Key Insights:
We are still very early in the adoption curve of AI and generative language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. Comparing paying users of LLMs to the adoption curve of paying internet users, we are likely only in the first few innings.
There is an open question around who captures value in the AI industry stack - semiconductor players like Nvidia, infrastructure/cloud providers like AWS and Microsoft, or AI model companies like OpenAI. Both semiconductor and infrastructure players are trying to move up and down the stack respectively to capture more margin.
Nvidia has a compelling vision with its GPU-centric cloud offerings and complete software/hardware stacks. But hyperscalers like Microsoft and AWS are vertically integrating with their own custom silicon to compete. It's still uncertain which vision wins out.
If OpenAI continues its leadership, it may allow Microsoft to build custom accelerators that shift balance of power away from Nvidia. But if multiple strong AI models emerge from other players, Nvidia likely maintains dominance with its GPUs and silicon.
C. War On the West
Many people will hate me for even mentioning this book. I am sorry if it offends you.
I spent last weekend reading Douglas Murray's "The War on the West" based on a suggestion from my friend David J and would recommend checking it out.
The book makes the argument that Western civilisation faces threats from within that seek to tarnish its foundations. Whether you agree with Douglas or his theories it’s an important book to understand what a large segment of the population feels and why.
The book examines topics like alleged systemic racism, cancel culture, and influential thinkers critiquing the West. Murray contends that some re-write history negatively, often decontextualising actions or ignoring non-Western parallels.
His central thesis holds that despite flaws, the West's contributions to science, culture, and rights are profound and merit defending. Challenging notions of inherent oppression in Western traditions, Murray suggests Western values offer solutions to modern problems rather than cause them. He sees the book as pushing back against an "Age of Unreason" jeopardising the West.
Murray's book has sparked debate and controversy, with some critics accusing it of lacking nuance and balance in its critique of contemporary movements and of contributing to divisiveness
His conversation with Lex Fridman from a year ago has 4.5 million views.
D. The Entertainment Section:
1. Oppenheimer, directed by Christopher Nolan, is a 2023 biographical thriller based on the 2005 book "American Prometheus" by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin.
Have you watched it yet? I finally watched it last weekend and understood why it won so many awards.
The film stars Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, the man behind the atomic bomb. It explores Oppenheimer's role in the Manhattan Project, his personal life, and the moral challenges he faced.
The movie shows how Oppenheimer got involved in the top-secret Manhattan Project, leading to the atomic bomb's creation. It highlights his relationships with scientists, government officials, and a former lover, alongside his struggle with guilt after the bomb's destructive impact. This guilt turns him into a peace advocate, putting him at odds with powerful figures.
2. Imagine a Netflix series with over 10 million views in a week! That’s the 3 Body Problem. Wow!
3. If you are into Special Forces and CIA stuff, then Special Ops: Lioness is fun entertainment.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
Your best newsletter of 2024! Always a pleasure to read it weekly.