A Few Things: Making Sense Of The Market, Emerson on Self-Reliance, Marko Papic on Markets, Coatue on Equities, A16Z on Crypto....

June 10, 2022

I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.

“Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be One.”

- Marcus Aurelius

“The way to develop self-confidence is to do the thing you fear.” 

- William Jennings Bryan 

“Don't ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive and go do it. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive."

- Brené Brown

“Once we realise that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”

- George Soros

“I never travel without my diary. One should always have something sensational to read in the train.”

- Oscar Wilde

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A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out

1. Invest Like the Best had Prof. Aswath Damodaran at NYU on the show. Prof. Aswath is a master of making the complex sound simple, and in this wide-ranging conversation he makes the theory behind inflation, ESG, ROIC, alpha, and other investing topics come alive with practical insights.

Worth listening to twice.

2. Ralph Waldo Emerson’s most famous paper is Self Reliance.

It’s a discussion about thinking for one’s self, rather than rely on the abstractions and thoughts of others. It’s a reminder to use first principles to come at your own answers rather than spouting ideas given to you by someone else.

The essay gives you permission to not just be wrong but also to change your mind.

For Emerson, Self Reliance is important for two reasons: a) it is unfair to the world and to yourself to hide the real you. It is your duty to the world to share your truth, and your views b) Any progress, discovery of truth and new ideas are dependent on you trusting your self to seek the truth, rather than relying on the ideas of others. Which may or may not be right or true for the world today.

Three famous Emerson quotes:

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.

The only person you are destined to become, is the person you decide to be.

Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and and leave a trail.

If you want to go deeper, The Philosophize This podcast had a great discussion on it.

3. Marko Papic from Clocktower Group had a great piece arguing that the market has already priced in a recession and we might be at peak FED hawkishness. While he thinks we are close to bottoming given those factors, he is more excited about RoW Value than US Growth.

If you missed him on the Market Huddle, May 27th, it’s a must listen.

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B. The Tech and Crypto Section:

1. Coatue Management, the NY based hedge fund had a great Investor Update deck that was doing the rounds on Twitter.

Here are a few slides that stood out:

Bottom line: Be careful out there.

2. The Bankless podcast had an episode with Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon of a16z. It is exactly what you should to listen to if you are crypto sceptic. Andreessen, as the godfather of venture capital, has bet the farm on crypto and has just raised a fresh $4.5 billion to invest in the space. That is a massive amount of money, and listening to him talk about his conviction for crypto and its analogies with the early internet is just superb. Critics of crypto point to scams, ponzis and bad actors and there are definitely lots of those.

3. Super piece by Neckar on wisdom from Josh Wolfe. Packed with great ideas: “Avoid boring people” (double meaning here), “Chips on shoulders put chips in pockets.” and “The governing force in my life is randomness and optionality.”.

Well worth a read.

Disclaimer: I certify that these are my personal views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments.

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“When most people think about the future, they dream up ways they might live happier lives. But notice this phenomenon. When people remember the crucial events that formed them, they don't usually talk about happiness. It is usually the ordeals that seem most significant. Most people shoot for happiness but feel formed through suffering.”

- David Brooks

Have a great weekend.