A Few Things: The Surveillance State, Daily Habits for Longevity, Election 2024 Investment Implications, Be A Supercommunicator, Power of Noticing, Chaos in Politics, The Fund, Building Perplexity....
March 7, 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
Here is last week’s discussion: Why Kids Aren't Alright, Ackman on Investing, Media, DEI, How To Read +80 Books a Year, 37 Pieces of Career Advice, Ignoring The Crowd & Beating The Market, News & Charts You Missed....
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Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“Never be limited by other people's limited imaginations. If you adopt their attitudes, then the possibility won't exist because you'll have already shut it out...You can hear other people's wisdom, but you've got to re-evaluate the world for yourself.”
- Mae Jemison
“Courage is the price that life exacts for granting peace.”
- Amelia Earhart
“There is more to life than increasing its speed.”
- Mahatma Gandhi
“Fame is a vapor, popularity an accident, riches take wings. Only one thing endures, and that is character.”
- Horace Greeley
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
1. Hidden Forces spoke with investigative journalist Byron Tau, who specializes in law, courts, and national security, about how a hidden alliance between technology companies and the government is creating a new American surveillance state.
Many of you are probably thinking, “Yeah, I know this. We all have cell phones. They have GPS trackers, and my phone calls are being monitored. Tell me something I don’t know.”
Yet, the truth is that our smartphones, wearable devices, networked homes, credit cards, and even the tires we drive on emit an overwhelming amount of data revealing details about our lives, daily habits, and most intimate behaviors that would astonish you.
That data is being captured and available for sale, and the U.S. government is its biggest customer.
Five Key Insights from the conversation:
Consumer data brokers have extensive profiles on most Americans that they sell to government agencies, creating a hidden surveillance partnership between the private and public sectors.
The debate around internet issues in the US has been incorrectly framed as a free speech vs censorship conflict, failing to address the real threat of mass surveillance.
Surveillance capabilities now exist for an Orwellian, "Minority Report"-like police state due to the vast amounts of data available and the tools to analyze it.
Governments view social media and the internet as an "information environment" to compete over, using special operators and intelligence agencies.
Ubiquitous data collection allows forces the average person can't understand or see to influence democracy, politics, and society behind the scenes.
2. Chris Williamson spoke with Dr Rhonda Patrick on The Most Important Daily Habits For Health & Longevity.
Ten Key Insights from the conversation:
Eat protein within 30 minutes of waking up, aiming for 1-1.2g per kg of body weight. Eggs, salmon, and bacon are good options.
Incorporate "exercise snacks" - 1-3 minutes of high intensity exercise like sprints or bodyweight movements - a few times throughout your day.
Do high intensity interval training (HIIT) incorporating vigorous exercise at 75-80% max heart rate for 10+ minutes, 4 times per week. This boosts VO2 max.
Use heat training like sauna for 20 mins at 170°F+ 4 times per week. This provides cardiovascular and longevity benefits.
Supplement with omega-3s, 2000mg+ EPA/DHA daily with food to control inflammation.
Have carbs and fats in meals after protein to control blood sugar spikes. Smaller meals also help inflammation.
Take magnesium, B vitamins, vitamin K, iron, zinc to support metabolism and prevent nutrient deficiencies.
Eat blueberries and dark chocolate to provide brain-boosting polyphenols and improve cognition.
Do resistance training 2+ hours per week, focusing on eccentric movements with full range of motion. Lift to near failure.
Incorporate deliberate cold exposure like cold showers for focus and mood benefits. 5 minutes at 50°F is a good minimum.
3. One of my favorite thinkers - Citrini (he helped me be early on GLPs and AI) shared his thinking on Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations.
5 Key Insights from his work:
Citrini has constructed two baskets to capitalize on the potential outcomes of a Trump vs. Biden election in 2024. The Tax Policy Basket focuses on the key differences in tax plans between the candidates, with the expectation that Trump would extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while Biden would push for a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. The Election 2024 Basket consists of various sub-themes designed to capture market perceptions on election odds, with long positions in sectors expected to benefit from GOP policies and short positions in current Democratic policy beneficiaries or expected GOP policy underperformers.
The most significant differences between potential Trump and Biden presidencies, as they relate to markets, are likely to be the focus of their fiscal stimulus programs and their respective tax policies. Biden is expected to continue current policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), while Trump would likely extend the TCJA tax cuts and potentially roll back some of Biden's initiatives. These differences could have substantial implications for various sectors and companies.
The Election 2024 Basket is constructed as a long/short portfolio, with long positions in sectors and companies expected to benefit from a "Trump/GOP Win" and short positions in those likely to underperform. The basket includes several sub-themes, such as NATO (long EU defense/short US defense), tariff winners/losers, education (long for-profit education/short adult care), LNG/coal (GOP favored), onshoring vs. nearshoring, financial deregulation, private prisons, and certain Trump-specific bets (e.g., DWAC, FNMA/FMCC).
Regardless of the election outcome, the author believes that a Trump/Biden rematch in 2024 significantly increases both the perception and likelihood of post-election social instability, protests, and unrest compared to other potential matchups. Companies that could benefit from this scenario include those providing glass/window replacements (e.g., Apogee Enterprises) and protective equipment for law enforcement (e.g., Axon Enterprise).
From a macroeconomic perspective, a Trump victory, especially with a Republican-controlled Congress, could lead to a weaker dollar, a steeper yield curve (due to potentially dovish Fed chair and continuation of TCJA), less advancement of AI regulation, and continued pressure on the Federal Reserve for looser monetary policy. Small-cap stocks could benefit from broad deregulation under a GOP government. However, the author also notes that businesses and investors should be attuned to sentiment shifts and potential market overreactions around the election.
4. Hidden Forces spoke to Charles Duhigg about his new book titled: Supercommunicators, about how we can all learn to become better at hearing one another and forge more meaningful and authentic connections with the people around us.
Five Key Insights from the conversation:
Supercommunicators are skilled at connecting with almost anyone by asking thoughtful questions, listening attentively, sharing authentic perspectives, and building mutual understanding. Anyone can cultivate these skills to become a more effective communicator.
There are 3 main types of conversations: practical (problem-solving), emotional (empathizing), and social (relating). It's vital to recognize the type of conversation occurring and respond accordingly. Matching the mode of communication fosters better connections.
Nurturing deep, meaningful relationships is pivotal for long-term health, fulfillment and success. Conversations are the avenue through which we construct these bonds. Prioritizing genuine dialogue fortifies our wellbeing.
Communication mediums shape interpersonal dynamics, sometimes divisively. Yet each channel has unique "rules" to facilitate connection - understanding these nuances enables more constructive discussions across all platforms.
Visionary leadership entails broadening dialogues to be more inclusive of diverse views. Though disagreements may persist, seeking shared understanding unifies people. Conversations achieve progress not by declaring victors, but through mutual comprehension.
5. Prof. Tali Sharot author of Look Again (with Cass Sunstein) spoke with Michael Shermer to discuss: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There.
Her work is focused on Cognitive Neuroscience in the department of Experimental Psychology and The Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry at University College London and on the faculty of the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT.
Four Key Insights from the conversation:
Habituation is an important evolutionary adaptation that allows us to filter out constant, unchanging information and focus on new inputs. This helps us conserve mental resources. However, we can also habituate to positive things in our lives, causing them to induce less joy over time. Actively introducing variety and change can counter this.
There are individual differences in how quickly people habituate. Slower habituators tend to be more creative but also more prone to mental health issues. Faster habituators may adapt better to change. Understanding your habituation tendencies can provide insight.
Expectations shape happiness. As women's rights progressed, their happiness initially declined, likely because their expectations rose faster than society actually changed. Closing this gap between expectations and reality boosted happiness later. Managing expectations is key.
Hearing statements multiple times increases the illusion of their truth, making people more likely to believe and share them. This "illusory truth" effect drives misinformation. Being aware of this tendency can make us more cautious about repeat claims.
6. CAIA Association’s Capital Decanted spoke to Marko Papic (Clocktower Group) and Anastasia Titarchuk (CIO, New York State Common Retirement Fund) about “How should an investor integrate geopolitical trends into their investment thesis and what pitfalls and common mistakes should we watch out for?”
The action with Marko starts about 55 mins in.
7. In Plain English had a great podcast with Danish political scientist Michael Bang Petersen on Why The Need For Chaos I Eating American Politics.
It's an idea called "need for chaos," and the truth is that I literally cannot stop thinking about it as I follow American culture, politics, and media.
Very briefly, it is the observation that many Americans today embrace conspiracy theories and nihilistic burn-it-all-down messages, not because they are partisans of the left or right, but rather because they've become hopelessly cynical (sometimes for very good reason!) about all elite and all major institutions of power.
8. John D Rockefeller is one of those people I think everyone should study. Like Steve Jobs, the Wright brothers, or Elon Musk, Rockefeller shaped the course of American history.
This is a great podcast on his life, based largely on the excellent biography, Titan. It’s a good entry point to Rockefeller if you don’t know much about him, and it’s a nice refresher if you do.
My favorite takeaway from the episode was The Rockefeller Test:
If you're struggling to achieve a goal and you know it’s something you really want, ask yourself, ‘Have I failed twice as much as any reasonable person would?’ If the answer is no—and it probably is no—you need to keep trying.
This came from Rockefeller's approach to getting his first job. He applied to a long list of businesses, and they all said no.
So what did he do?
He just started over at the top of the list. He visited all the places he applied a second and a third time, refusing to quit.
Finally, one of them hired him.
9. I recently joined MyBuyside. It is an online community designed exclusively for institutional investors. Their goal is to expand your team’s network and streamline the research process. They offer industry-specific channels for real-time discussions and a forum for short-form investment pitches. Today they have ~100 buysiders on the site, with an average buyside tenure of ~9 years.
Great place to expand your network and scale your research process.
B. The Fund
Finished listening to Rob Copeland's entertaining book "The Fund", which delves into the world of Ray Dalio and his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, providing a critical examination of the firm's culture and investment strategies.
Rob Copeland is a banking and finance reporter for the New York Times. He was previously a long-time hedge-fund beat reporter at the Wall Street Journal, and has also covered Silicon Valley and the hidden worlds of the wealthy and powerful.
The Fund is his first book.
The book reveals the pain often caused by Dalio's "radical transparency" and the toxic culture of paranoia and backstabbing that it fostered within Bridgewater.
Copeland's narrative suggests that Dalio's principles, which were intended to create a culture of open debate and truth-seeking, in practice led to a culture where dissent was stifled and conformity was enforced.
The book also explores Bridgewater's investment methodologies and strategies, highlighting the firm's reliance on proprietary research and models, as well as trend-following techniques.
However, it questions the effectiveness of these strategies, suggesting that they may have become obsolete over time. Copeland alleges that despite Bridgewater's image as an algorithmic system, Dalio's personal market views significantly influenced trading decisions, sometimes to the detriment of the fund's performance.
Here is speaking to Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown about his book.
C. The Science and Technology Section:
1. Aravind Srinivas is the founder and CEO of Perplexity, he was on Invest Like The Best. Perplexity is my default answer engine now. Forget Google.
Five Key Insights:
Perplexity's vision is to be the best answer engine, making it effortless for anyone to ask great questions and learn from an AI with vast, up-to-date knowledge.
Perplexity has innovated by matching ChatGPT's speed, improving its web index quality to reduce hallucinations, and building efficient in-house infrastructure for cost-effective language model inference.
The two biggest technical bottlenecks are: 1) Achieving strong reasoning in smaller models to cut costs. 2) Using synthetic data to recursively improve models once internet data is fully leveraged.
AI startups must focus relentlessly on their core product and move extremely fast to establish a data flywheel and brand, as tech giants will enter any profitable vertical.
Early on, founders should prioritize iteratively building something that gains real traction. Earning the right to strategize comes from a track record of rapid execution, not premature obsession with moats.
2. Dwarkesh Patel spoke to Demis Hassabis about Scaling, Superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, Rogue Nations Threat.
Five Key Insights from this conversation:
General intelligence likely involves some high-level common algorithmic themes and underlying principles, in addition to specialized parts of the brain for specific functions. Hassabis sees both as important.
Scaling up models through more data and compute has progressed further than almost anyone expected. However, additional algorithmic innovations are still likely needed for AGI, like planning and search capabilities.
Multimodal models that incorporate different data types like text, images, video, etc. can lead to better grounding and transfer learning between modalities. As models incorporate more senses, they will better understand the real world.
Strong security around models is crucial to prevent access by bad actors who could repurpose them for harm. There are complex tradeoffs between openness/transparency and locking down access.
Responsible development of AI systems requires thoughtful collaboration between companies, governments, academia and civil society to ensure models are safe, beneficial, and aimed at the good of society. We must balance optimism with caution.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!