The Curious Mind: AI & Semiconductors, Quit Your Job, The US Election, Building Startups, HRV & Longevity, My Operating Principles, Events Series....
August 28, 2024
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s discussion: The Banned Eric Schmidt Interview, Outerspace and Blackholes, What Does It Mean To Be Human?, Is Your VC Fund Any Good?, Summer Reflection Framework, News and Charts You Missed....
Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“It's a hell of a responsibility to be yourself. It's much easier to be somebody else or nobody at all.”
- Sylvia Plath
“When art critics get together, they talk about form and structure and meaning. When artists get together, they talk about where you can buy cheap turpentine.”
– Pablo Picasso
"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."
- Buckminster Fuller
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
- Bernard M. Baruch
"The best way to predict the future is to create it."
- Peter Drucker
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:
The conversation focuses on the pervasive and transformative potential of AI across industries, highlighting both near-term investment opportunities and longer-term strategic considerations for investors navigating this rapidly evolving technological landscape.
7 BIG IDEAS:
The AI Compute Race and Its Implications: The race for AI supremacy is driving unprecedented investment in compute infrastructure. The focus on scaling laws suggests that companies able to efficiently scale their compute capabilities (like Nvidia, Google, and Meta) may have outsized advantages. Investors should look for companies innovating in these areas, as well as those developing technologies to improve AI training efficiency (e.g., better algorithms, novel architectures).
The Evolution of AI Infrastructure Efficiency: The conversation introduces a comprehensive framework for evaluating AI infrastructure efficiency, including MAMMF (maximum achievable matrix multiplication FLOPS), SFU (system FLOPS efficiency), checkpointing frequency, and PUE (power usage effectiveness).
This framework provides a roadmap for investors to evaluate companies in the AI infrastructure space.
Software companies optimizing CUDA or developing competing frameworks
Hardware companies improving GPU reliability and efficiency
Companies innovating in AI-specific memory and storage solutions
Startups developing novel approaches to AI model checkpointing and reliability
The Shift to Edge AI and Its Market Implications: The potential move towards more AI processing on edge devices, particularly smartphones, could reshape the mobile and chip industries:
Opportunities in advanced mobile processors and AI accelerators
Increased demand for high-bandwidth, low-latency memory solutions for mobile devices
Potential for new mobile OS features and APIs centered around on-device AI
Emergence of edge AI development platforms and tools
The Convergence of AI, Robotics, and Autonomous Systems: The discussion highlights the potential for AI to dramatically accelerate progress in robotics and autonomous systems, with far-reaching implications:
Autonomous vehicle technology (with Tesla positioned as a potential leader)
General-purpose humanoid robots for various industries
AI-powered automation in manufacturing, logistics, and service industries
Potential for new insurance and liability models for AI-driven systems
The Evolving Landscape of AI Applications: While cautioning against over-enthusiasm for every AI startup, the conversation suggests that successful AI application companies will likely have:
Unique, proprietary data assets
Efficient integration with existing workflows and systems
Strong go-to-market strategies and user experiences
The ability to continually improve with user feedback
AI's Impact on Labor Markets and Economic Structures: The potential for AI to automate or augment a wide range of jobs, from blue-collar to high-skill knowledge work, suggests several investment themes:
Companies developing AI-powered productivity tools for knowledge workers
Platforms for AI-human collaboration and augmented decision-making
Educational technology focused on reskilling and adapting to an AI-driven economy
Potential opportunities in labor market analytics and AI-driven HR technologies
The Transformation of Investment Strategies in the AI Era: The conversation suggests that AI will fundamentally alter investment strategies across public and private markets:
For public equity investors, there may be a window of opportunity to combine human judgment with AI-powered analysis before quantitative strategies fully catch up
In venture capital, the emphasis may shift towards operational expertise and team assessment, as AI democratizes access to market and technical information
The nature of due diligence and valuation models may evolve to place greater emphasis on a company's AI capabilities, data assets, and ability to adapt to rapid technological change
If all of this inspires you to get involved, this is a good LEARNING AI (FOR THE LUDDITE) twitter post.
On a further related note Citrini had a good piece titled Can You Hear Me Now? focused on the potential for growth on telecommunications industry to handle all the data AI will be creating and using.
2. I’m middle aged now and it gets harder to keep a fresh perspective on the world and to view the world from outside my filter bubble.
This means I am always on the look out for fresh and differentiated perspective.
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an American economist, technology entrepreneur, and author known for her expertise in global economics and geopolitics. These days, she is the co-founder of H Robotics, a company specializing in commercial drone technology, and the founder of DRPM Group, which helps clients anticipate global economic trends.
Her blog is one of the rare few I pay for and given Robert F. Kennedy Jr coming out supporting Trump, she had an interesting piece titled: Assassinations, Autonomy, Anatomy, Anomalous and The Presidential Race.
RFK Jr.'s Political Strategy and Its Broader Implications: Suspension vs. termination of campaign. He will still be on the ballot in 40 States, he has just taken himself off the ballot in States where he could hurt Trump. It turns out that if no party gets 270 electoral college votes, we get a contingent election, this has happened three times in American history: in 1801, 1825, and 1837.
There is a potential that Kennedy can still be President! Longer term, potential Trump-to-Kennedy power transition plan (2028).
Pippa spoke to Nicole Shanahan, she was/is RFK Jr.'s running mate in his 2024 independent presidential campaign, and was previously married to Sergey Brin from 2018 to 2021.
It’s a fun and eye opening discussion that helped my filter bubble. They discussed RFK Jr, America’s next generation, geopolitics and even UFOs.
If you’d like to hear directly from RFK Jr, he did an interview with Tucker Carlson on Monday.
3. Pieter Levels (aka levelsio on X) is a self-taught developer and entrepreneur who has designed, programmed, launched over 40 startups, many of which are highly successful and produce $mm’s in cashflow annually.
For example: Photo AI, Interior AI, Remote Ok.
He spoke to Lex Fridman in an inspirational conversation about Programming, Viral AI Startups, and Digital Nomad Life.
3 BIG IDEAS:
Bootstrapping, rapid iteration and pragmatic development: Pieter strongly advocates for building and launching products quickly, often within weeks, to validate ideas and gather user feedback. Pieter has built successful businesses without venture capital, preferring to maintain control and profitability.
Automation and scalability as a solo founder: A central theme is Pieter's approach to automating processes to increase productivity and enable scaling as an individual entrepreneur.
Digital nomad lifestyle and global perspective: As the creator of Nomad List, Pieter shares insights on the digital nomad movement and how it has shaped his approach to work and life.
4. Dr Leah Lagos is a clinical psychologist, HRV performance coach and an author. She was on Modern Wisdom in a conversation titled: How To Improve Your Heart Rate Variability.
Heart Rate Variability is one of the most important new metrics that people are using to gauge heart health, longevity and fitness, but improving it can be a minefield.
3 BIG IDEAS:
HRV as a multifaceted biomarker: Indicator of autonomic nervous system function and flexibility. Reflects overall health, stress resilience, and recovery capacity. Linked to cardiovascular health and longevity. Higher HRV generally indicates better health and adaptability.
Comprehensive HRV training protocol: Resonant frequency breathing: 15 minutes, twice daily, for 10-12 weeks (Individual resonant frequency typically between 5-6.5 breaths per minute). Focus on training the heart muscle, not just breathing. Aims to increase baroreflex gain and parasympathetic dominance.
Integration and application of HRV awareness: Real-time use for stress management (e.g., "power five" breathing). Incorporating into daily routines (e.g., before meals, during walks). Using HRV data to understand personal patterns and optimize lifestyle.
5. I’m a big fan of Rory Sutherland and enjoyed this talk he gave at Nudgestock a few weeks ago, titled: Are We Now Too Impatient to Be Intelligent?
It highlights the complex relationship between time, technology, and human psychology, and challenges the pervasive assumption that faster and more efficient is always better.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
The Subjectivity of Time Perception: How our perception of time savings is non-linear and often misleading and leads to misperception on decision-making in various aspects of life.
Conflict Between Optimization Models & Human Experience: Mathematical models and algorithms often fail to account for human preferences and psychology, this leads to prioritizing efficiency over enjoyment or other human factors. We should stop, question, and sometimes resist purely data-driven decision-making.
The Unintended Consequences of Technological "Improvements": Technologies intended to save time often lead to new pressures and inefficiencies. Optional technologies becoming obligatory social norms
The Value of Slowness and Inefficiency in Certain Contexts: Some processes derive their value from being slow or "inefficient". There is importance in recognising when faster isn't better. There are benefits of intentionally slowing down certain activities or decisions.
The Hidden Importance of Process Over Product: The effort and time invested in a process can be more valuable than the end result. We need to preserve and value human engagement in creative and analytical tasks.
Thank you David G for flagging.
6. Impactful essay in titled: Quit Your Job in Palladium Magazine.
It calls for a radical reevaluation of work, purpose, and progress. They challenge conventional wisdom about careers and success, advocating for a more dynamic, purposeful, and risk-embracing approach to life.
The essay ultimately presents a philosophy that intertwines personal growth with societal advancement, suggesting that by breaking free from traditional constraints, individuals can drive meaningful change on a larger scale.
4 BIG IDEAS:
The Virtue of Purposeful Idleness: "Active unemployment" or "otium" is not mere laziness, but a crucial period for exploration and innovation. This concept challenges the modern obsession with constant productivity, arguing that breakthroughs and personal growth often emerge from seemingly unstructured time.
The Moral Imperative of Privilege: Those with resources have an ethical obligation to step outside conventional career paths and tackle society's unsolved problems. This idea reframes privilege as a responsibility rather than just an advantage, calling for a new kind of engaged, risk-taking elite.
Redefining Success Beyond Capital: True success isn't about accumulating wealth or status, but about exercising genuine autonomy in defining and pursuing meaningful goals. This concept critiques the "wage-slave" mindset that can persist even among the wealthy, advocating for a more purposeful approach to life and work.
Struggle as a Catalyst for Growth: Comfort and security, while appealing, can lead to stagnation. This concept posits that real growth - individual and collective - emerges from grappling with significant challenges. It calls for a life that alternates between periods of exploratory leisure and intense, purpose-driven struggle.
7. If you decide to not quit your job, this one is important for anyone with a boss.
B. My Operating Principles:
Why do we do what we do? What are the values and principles driving our decisions?
This is a personal question and somewhere in the back of our minds these principles exist and drive our behaviour.
It’s important to know that everyone has different values and principles that drive them. We are all rational in different ways.
A few years ago I tried to write my values and principles down to try to understand myself better. I wanted to share some of them with you and maybe it will motivate to think about your own values and principles:
I believe learning comes first
To be useful to others is the most important thing
The world is positive sum, we can and must grow the pie for others
Happiness is within ourselves and in our control
I try to compound everything and learn from everyone
I go first - act first, thank first, move first, ask first
I choose freedom and open space over other things
I will respect myself and forgive myself daily
C. The Curious Mind Events Series
The Secrets of Picking Stocks Like A Pro: Please join me in an exclusive discussion with Stephen Clapham, analyst, author, podcaster and founder of Behind The Balance Sheet on Sept 23rd 12pm EST.
Following a 25-year career as an investment analyst, investor and partner and head of research at two multi-billion hedge funds, Stephen decided to put that experience to good use and offer training to professional investment analysts and portfolio managers. More recently, his online school offers training to private investors as well.
We will be covering BIG QUESTIONS such as why companies are increasingly managing earnings, why price matters but not for the reason you think and how to spot frauds. And much much more
We will limit the group to 30 people in a webinar format.
Would you like to join?
P.S. Could you do me a favor ? This email takes many hours to put together, including hours of sourcing, curating and writing. If it is helpful to you, then do me a favor and hit the “heart” button so I know it’s useful to you.
Great work, Ahmed.
Great content as ever