The Curious Mind: Invisible Asymptotes, Human Advantage In The World Of AI, Marko On The War & Markets, The Quest For Happiness, How AI OG Uses LLMs, This App Changed My Life, Economist on CRISPR...
March 7, 2025
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s discussion: Bull Market in Humanities, How To Get Rich, Finding Your Mission, Paul Singer & Tangen, Trump's Plan, Gen Z and Progress, Palmer Luckey & Coaute on Defence, Bio Design Revolution....
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Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“Until you make the invisible visible, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”
- Carl Jung
“Ordinary people think merely of spending time, great people think of using it.”
- Arthur Schopenhauer
"When all the experts and forecast agree - something else is going to happen."
- Bob Farrell
"Spend a handful of hours a day going fast. Crush a gym session. Do deep work on a project you care about. Spend the rest of the day going slow. Take walks. Read books. Get a long dinner with friends. Either way, avoid the anxious middle where you never truly relax or truly move forward."
- Charles Miller
"To create, one must first question everything. Never adopt someone else's conclusion without putting it to the test of your own reasoning and imagination."
- Eileen Gray
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out
1. Your Invisible Asymptotes.
I was going through my notes last weekend and remembered when Eugene Wei was on the Invest Like the Best podcast. Eugene had written this amazing blog post titled Invisible Asymptotes.
The idea being that all companies (and people) have this ceiling that our growth curve bumps it's head against if we continue down our current path.
For example, for Amazon in early days, it was shipping costs. This was the factor holding back their growth, so they dealt with it head on and relentlessly either drove shipping costs down or made them disappear through Prime.
More interestingly, all of us have our own hidden personal asymptotes.
Quoting the article:
In my experience, the most successful people I know are much more conscious of their own personal asymptotes at a much earlier age than others. They ruthlessly and expediently flush them out. One successful person I know determined in grade school that she'd never be a world-class tennis player or pianist. Another mentioned to me how, in their freshman year of college, they realized they'd never be the best mathematician in their own dorm, let alone in the world. Another knew a year into a job that he wouldn't be the best programmer at his company and so he switched over into management; he rose to become CEO.
By discovering their own limitations early, they are also quicker to discover vectors on which they're personally unbounded. This isn't to say a person needs to aspire to be the best at everything they do. I'm at peace with the fact that I'll likely always be a middling cook, that I won't win the Tour de France, and that I'm destined to be behind a camera and not in front of it. When it comes to business, however, and surviving in the ruthless Hobbesian jungle, where much more is winner-take-all than it once was, the idea that you can be whatever you want to be, or build whatever you want to build, is a sure path to a short, unhappy existence.
This idea helped me flush out my own asymptotes - what are my biases, thoughts and habits holding me back and therefore what should I be doing to make sure I can overcome the invisible asymptotes.
2. Human Advantage in the World of AI
Josh Wolfe at Lux Capital is always both entertaining and insightful, he spoke to Shane Parrish at the Knowledge Project.
The 3 BIG IDEAS:
Human connection becomes the scarce resource in an AI-abundant world. As artificial intelligence makes content creation effortless, authentic human relationships gain value. Josh highlights how shared memories and experiences create bonds that technology cannot replicate: "When you lose these people, you lose the partner to amplify that emotion." This explains why in-person work remains valuable despite remote options—the "interstitial moments" and serendipitous interactions create connections impossible to replicate virtually.
System maintenance will become a critical focus as cost of capital rises. After years of prioritizing growth and new development, Josh predicts a shift toward extending the lifespan of existing infrastructure. "If you have a rise in cost of capital," he explains, companies will focus on "how do we maintain the existing assets we have" rather than acquiring new ones. This represents a fundamental reorientation from "growth capex" to "maintenance capex" across industries—affecting everything from satellites to bridges to industrial systems. This shift creates opportunities for technologies that monitor, preserve, and extend the life of critical infrastructure.
AI is transforming information processing from consumption to partnership. Sophisticated AI integration can radically enhance decision-making and analysis, for example Josh discusses using multiple AI models simultaneously to analyse the same information from different angles, creating searchable archives of everything he encounters, and using AI to identify patterns across disparate sources. Rather than simply consuming more information, this approach allows for deeper understanding by revealing connections and questioning assumptions.
3. Did the US just abandon Ukraine?
Marko Papic, my favourite market geopolitical strategist spoke to Jacob Shapiro post the Trump-Zelensky meeting in a conversation titled: Did the US just abandon Ukraine?
The 4 BIG IDEAS:
The rare earth mineral deal between the US and Ukraine is largely for show. Marko thinks Trump wants to demonstrate to his American supporters that he's getting something tangible from Ukraine in exchange for continued US assistance...However, they seriously doubt the practicality of this deal given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the fundamental issue that the difficulty lies in refining these minerals (mostly done in China) rather than their actual scarcity.
Very low probability of the United States being able to significantly change Russia's geopolitical alignment to favour the West over its ties with China….They discuss the history of US-Russia relations, arguing that Russia hasn't been consistently rewarded for its cooperation with the US over the past quarter-century. Consequently, they believe it's highly improbable that Russia would abandon its growing alliance with China, regardless of any perceived Russian weakness or US attempts at rapprochement.
Shifting global order towards a multipolar world. Trump's foreign policy approach indicates an acceptance of this reality....They speculate that this could inadvertently push European nations towards greater integration in areas such as defence and foreign policy, as they might interpret US actions as a potential decrease in its commitment to European security.... While a more unified Europe could become a significant global player, its interests might not always align perfectly with those of the United States.
Current state of the war in Ukraine, has reached a point of material constraint. They propose that continuing intense fighting along the current front lines might not be the most strategic way forward for Ukraine or its allies. Instead, they suggest considering a long-term strategy focused on rebuilding the Ukrainian state and allowing its future economic and social strength to potentially influence the currently contested territories, drawing parallels with the resolution of the Cold War.
He was also on CNBC March 4th:
He’s a big fan of non-US equities.
4. A Reset in US - Russia Relations?
Hidden Forces spoke with Russia and U.S. national security experts Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman about the peace talks between the United States and Russia to end the Ukraine war, and whether they are part of a larger vision by the Trump administration to reset American grand strategy and the global order.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). From 2015 to 2018, she served as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She specializes in Russian foreign and domestic policy, authoritarianism, and European security, and she regularly provides commentary and analysis on these issues.
Michael Kofman is a Senior Research Scientist at CNA (Center for Naval Analyses) and a Fellow at the Wilson Center, Kennan Institute. His research is focused on the Russian armed forces, military analyses, security issues, and increasingly strategy. He runs a personal blog on the Russian military, defense spending, exercises and the like.
Along with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, he co-wrote “Putin’s Point of No Return,” a Foreign Affairs article that examines Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculations and their implications for the West.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
Asymmetrical Peace Negotiations: The ongoing talks between the US and Russia reveal fundamentally different approaches. Russia maintains maximalist demands while showing no willingness to make concessions, continuing military pressure on Ukraine while negotiating. Meanwhile, the Trump administration appears urgently motivated to end the conflict quickly—potentially for domestic political gains including a Nobel Peace Prize—without sufficient coordination with Ukraine or European allies, weakening its negotiating position.
US Foreign Policy Transformation: The experts observe that the Trump administration's approach to Russia represents a dramatic departure from decades of US foreign policy, lacking a coherent strategy beyond transactional objectives. This shift is evidenced by controversial moves like voting with Russia at the UN Security Council against Ukraine, which signals a potential realignment toward a "spheres of influence" world order where major powers control their respective regions.
Russian Resilience to War Costs: Despite suffering approximately 500,000 casualties in Ukraine, Putin's regime has effectively mitigated domestic political pressure by recruiting from politically less significant populations (prisoners, economically disadvantaged regions, non-ethnic Russians), offering substantial financial incentives, and increasing state repression. This contradicts earlier assumptions that Russia would be highly sensitive to casualties.
European Security Challenges: As the US appears to be reducing its commitment to European security, NATO allies face the daunting task of rapidly increasing their defense capabilities. However, this transition faces multiple obstacles: European defense industries lack capacity to absorb increased spending, military capabilities can't be quickly built, and European nations must overcome coordination challenges after decades of relying on US leadership.
Global Order Transformation: The experts suggest we're witnessing a significant shift away from the post-Cold War liberal international order led by the United States toward something resembling a multipolar system with competing spheres of influence. They express deep concern that such an arrangement would be fundamentally unstable, as revisionist powers like Russia have ambitions that extend beyond their immediate neighborhoods, potentially leading to increased interstate conflict and human suffering.
5. How Art Movements Got Their Name
B. The Quest For Happiness
Martin Seligman, a psychology professor and researcher at the University of Pennsylvania, has made significant contributions to the field of positive psychology through his work on learned optimism.
His book "Learned Optimism" offers insights into cultivating a more positive outlook on life. I read it a few years ago, and think about the lessons regularly.
Firstly, Optimistic people are happier, healthier and potentially even better paid. His work found:
Improved health and longevity
Enhanced job success
Higher overall life satisfaction
And Optimists differ from Pessimists in three key areas, the 3Ps:
Permanence: How quickly they recover from adverse events
Pervasiveness: The extent to which negative experiences affect other areas of life
Personalization: The tendency to attribute negative events to internal or external factors
Seligman developed a survey to assess one's level of optimism, which can be completed in about 5 minutes. It helps individuals understand their current optimistic tendencies and areas for improvement.
Seligman's approach to cultivating optimism involves the ABCDE model:
A: Adversity
B: Belief
C: Consequence
D: Disputation
E: Energization
This model provides a framework for challenging negative beliefs and fostering a more optimistic outlook.
Example: Traffic Incident
Adversity: Being cut off in traffic
Belief: "That driver is rude and selfish!"
Consequence: Anger and frustration
Disputation: "I'm overreacting. The other driver might have a valid reason for their behavior. I've made similar mistakes before."
Energization: Feeling proud of maintaining composure and perspective
Cultivating Optimism:
Beyond his ABCDE approach, 3 strategies that have helped me in the quest for happiness:
Practice gratitude daily: Keep a gratitude journal and write down three things I am thankful for each day. This habit shifts my focus from what's lacking to what's positive in my life. I usually do this when I am walking around or before bed. Reminding myself of all that I already have helps fight negative feelings.
Challenge and reframe negative thoughts: When faced with pessimistic thoughts, I question their validity and try to reinterpret them more positively. For example, instead of thinking "This is impossible," reframe it as "This is challenging, but I can figure it out", or remind myself how I have dealt with difficulties in the past.
Focus on what I can control: Direct my energy towards aspects of my life that I can influence, rather than worrying about things beyond my control. This approach helps me feel more empowered and less helpless, fuelling greater optimism. This is also known as having an internal locus of control or high agency.
If you want to go deeper in this space, I book read when I was younger was Dale Carnegie’s:
C. The Science and Technology Section:
1. Everyone should watch Andrej Karpathy's latest video on how he uses LLMs, even those who think AI is already a big part of their lives because you get one of the best minds in AI is spending time showing how he uses AI personally.
2. I started using Granola AI after listening to Patrick O’Shaughnessy interview the founder on Invest Like The Best last week.
The tool has changed my life.
The 3 BIG IDEAS:
AI as the Next Evolution in Tools for Thought: Throughout history, humans have created cognitive tools that extend our mental capabilities - from writing and mathematical notation to data visualization. Chris Pedregal positions AI as the next major advancement in this evolution, functioning like external memory that brings relevant context exactly when needed. Granola exemplifies this by capturing meeting content and allowing users to focus on high-value insights rather than exhaustive note-taking, fundamentally changing how people work by making previously lost context immediately accessible.
Augmentation vs. Replacement Philosophy: A core principle guiding Granola's development is that AI should enhance human capabilities rather than replace them. Chris repeatedly emphasizes this distinction - outsourcing routine tasks to AI while preserving human judgment and creativity. This philosophy manifests in how Granola users now approach meetings, jotting down only key insights and internal thoughts while relying on AI for factual transcription. The goal is to build tools that make humans more effective and present rather than tools that diminish human involvement.
The Coming Revolution in AI Interfaces: Current AI interfaces remain primitive and limiting - Chris compares them to early cars with steering sticks instead of wheels. He predicts that today's chat-based interfaces will soon feel archaic, replaced by more fluid collaborative experiences where humans and AI work on the same canvas. Users need finer-grained control and the ability to directly manipulate AI outputs rather than giving commands and hoping for the right response.
3. Last week’s Economist had a deep dive report on The Age of CRISPR.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
CRISPR represents a genuine paradigm shift in biotechnology, offering unprecedented precision in gene editing. Discovered as part of bacterial immune systems and adapted by Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna in 2012, CRISPR's targeting system relies on RNA guides that direct the Cas9 protein to make precise cuts in DNA. Unlike previous gene-editing methods that took months to develop, CRISPR systems can be designed and deployed rapidly—even by high school students—making genetic modification vastly more accessible than ever before. This has democratized genetic engineering across research fields while raising profound questions about controlling such a powerful technology.
The medical applications of CRISPR are transitioning from laboratory promise to clinical reality. Casgevy, approved in 2023, has successfully treated patients with sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia by editing their own stem cells to produce fetal hemoglobin. However, the procedure costs $2.2 million, requires destructive chemotherapy, and only works for disorders where cells can be removed, edited, and returned to the body. The field's future depends on developing in vivo treatments that can edit genes directly inside patients' bodies, with companies like Verve Therapeutics and Intellia pursuing therapies for heart disease and hereditary angioedema that could reach millions more patients.
Human germline editing remains extremely contentious, with both technical and ethical hurdles. When He Jiankui edited the CCR5 gene in human embryos in 2018, resulting in the birth of at least two gene-edited children, his work was condemned not only for breaking laws and research protocols but for its fundamental riskiness—edits in embryos affect every cell and are passed to future generations, who cannot consent. As Dr. Wells at Oxford demonstrated, early embryos have limited DNA repair capabilities, with 21 of 53 DNA breaks remaining unfixed in experimental embryos. Nevertheless, interest in polygenic embryo editing for disease prevention and enhancement continues, raising concerns about equity and eugenics.
Beyond the original CRISPR-Cas9 system, new editing technologies have emerged to address limitations and expand capabilities. Base editing, created by David Liu in 2016, can change individual DNA letters without cutting both strands, reducing unwanted mutations. Prime editing, Liu's subsequent invention, can rewrite longer DNA sequences using a template. Separately, epigenetic editing offers a potentially more reversible approach by placing chemical "locks" on genes rather than altering the DNA sequence itself—as demonstrated by Sonia Vallabh and her husband, who developed an editor that silences the prion gene in mice to prevent inherited prion disease. These advances represent a maturing field responding to early challenges.
The CRISPR industry is navigating significant growing pains as it moves from hype to practical implementation. After initial investor excitement around 2020, many biotech companies have faced reality checks: Editas abandoned promising programs, Prime Medicine reduced its pipeline from 18 to 5 therapies, and some companies shut down entirely. The challenges include delivery methods (particularly reaching tissues beyond the liver), regulatory complexity, and economic viability. However, recent developments offer hope: the FDA is streamlining approval processes to allow component reuse across therapies, healthcare systems are establishing payment frameworks for one-time cures, and non-profit initiatives like Dr. Urnov and Dr. Doudna's partnership with Danaher aim to treat rare diseases outside the commercial model.
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
Hayden Capital’s latest letter reminded me of the power of compounding:
another great collection. this will keep me busy on tomorrow night’s flight! thank you