The Curious Mind: Living Fully, In Spite Of Time, Diverging Trajectories, The Art of Learning, What Is Consensus, A Playful Universe, DeepSeek Decoded...

January 31, 2025

Jan 31, 2025

I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.

If you missed last week’s discussion: The Psychology of Happiness, Liberating Our Children, Populist Presidents, What Makes Humans Special, The Mathematics of Success, AI Tools, Energy-Compute-Crypto, Defence Tech Briefing...

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Quotes I Am Thinking About:

"People can sometimes be held hostage by their expectations. They have a dream of something they would like to achieve or a path they intend to follow, but their mindset falls apart when things don't work out how they had hoped.

The key is to reach for an extremely high bar, but to be adaptable enough to reframe the failures, disappointments, and defeats into fuel for the next thing. Give your best effort, but no matter how it works out, trust that life will be good for you. Focus on how the world is working with you, not against you.

Everything you are given is material for the next move. Everything."

- James Clear

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

- Mark Twain

"Being a contrarian is actually very easy. The problem is being a contrarian that makes money.”

- Steven Peak

“Don’t be the best. Be the only.”

- Jerry Garcia

“A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.”

- William James

A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:

1. Living Fully: Embodiment is our capacity to fully inhabit our lived experience through our whole being, rather than just experiencing life through our thoughts. It's the difference between thinking about walking and actually feeling the ground beneath your feet, the air on your skin, and the natural rhythm of your movement.

But in our modern world, many of us have become disconnected from this direct experience - we live increasingly in our heads, treating our bodies more like transportation vehicles than integral parts of our consciousness and intelligence.

Imagine trying to appreciate a symphony while wearing noise-canceling headphones, or trying to feel the ocean while sealed in a diving suit. This is how many of us move through life - technically present, but fundamentally disconnected from the fullness of our experience. We've become so accustomed to living in our heads that we've forgotten what it feels like to fully inhabit our bodies and experience the world directly.

In this remarkable conversation between Tom Morgan and Philip Shepard (I listened to it more than twice), they explore how this disconnection happened, why it matters, and most importantly, how we might find our way back to a more complete way of being.

Shepard, author of "Radical Wholeness" and a leading voice on embodiment, offers a perspective that goes beyond simple mindfulness or body awareness.

What makes this conversation particularly valuable is that it doesn't just diagnose the problem - it opens up a practical path forward.

The discussion challenges our fundamental assumptions about consciousness, intelligence, and what it means to be fully present in our lives. It suggests that the path to greater aliveness might not lie in thinking our way to solutions, but in rediscovering how to feel, sense, and participate in the world through our whole being.

The 5 BIG IDEAS:

Mistaking Thinking For Knowing: Our culture's obsession with living from the head has severed us from the body's profound intelligence - like a tree trying to live from its leaves while ignoring its roots. This disconnection shapes everything from our education systems to our daily habits, leading us to mistake thinking for knowing.
Being In The Present: We don't need elaborate techniques to be present - we need to stop blocking presence. Just as a singing bowl naturally resonates when struck, our bodies naturally attune to the present moment when we stop filling them with mental noise and tension.
From The Belly To The Head: Throughout history, we moved our center of awareness from the belly to the head, from feeling to controlling, from being to doing. This shift doesn't just explain personal anxiety - it illuminates everything from our environmental crisis to our struggles with intimacy and purpose.
There Is No Independence: The idea of independence is like trying to separate a wave from the ocean. Everything influences everything else - from the electrons at the edge of the universe to the thoughts in our minds. Our challenge isn't to stand alone, but to embrace our place in this living web of relationships.
Returning Home: True embodiment isn't about adding new skills or fixing ourselves - it's about returning to our natural state. Like water finding its own level, we can trust our innate capacity for fluidity, groundedness, spaciousness, centeredness, and attunement when we stop forcing and start allowing.

2. Why We Waste Precious Moments: Frederik Gieschen had a great piece titled “In Spite of Time”.

Key Bit:

The simplest way to ruin a life, he mused, was to turn people’s gaze away from what is divine and “towards themselves.” We have to keep shifting our gaze back toward what and who we love (also, frankly, to what and who we have a hard time loving). Protect chunks of time for focused work? Yes. Let anxiety over outcomes and possessiveness over time disconnect us from the world? Absolutely not.
At the heart of wasting time lies fear. Fear that it is all real: that this moment is a gift, that how we act does matter, and that we are not worthy. Fear that we’ve wasted too much time and can’t be forgiven. This is a poison leading to the bottom of the pit, to rejection of the gift and disconnect from our source.
“All mortals tend to turn into the thing they are pretending to be,” Lewis wrote. The mask becomes the face. What if we pretended to be worthy of the greatest gift and up to the challenge? What if we pretended to be forgiven for the million times we messed up in the past? What if we found ourselves in Siberia not as a punishment but as a chance to watch the Northern Lights? What if?

3. The Art of Learning: Josh Waitzkin is former child chess prodigy and the subject of the movie and true story Searching for Bobby Fischer.

Josh is also a world champion martial arts competitor and the author of the book The Art of Learning.

He spoke to Andrew Huberman in a conversation titled: The Art of Learning & Living Life.

The 5 BIG IDEAS:

Integrated Mastery: High-level mastery involves a crucial transition that most people miss. You start with natural talent and uninhibited performance (preconscious), but must journey through a challenging period of self-awareness and complexity before emerging into integrated mastery (postconscious). This mature state combines deep technical understanding with renewed freedom - you're not going back to being naive, but rather operating at a higher level with both knowledge and spontaneity.

Getting Back Up Better: Life's biggest setbacks - the devastating losses and failures - contain seeds of profound growth if we approach them systematically rather than just trying to move past them. The key is studying these moments carefully: What were the technical elements? What were the psychological factors? What broader patterns do they reveal? This detailed analysis, although uncomfortable, often uncovers insights that transform not just performance but understanding across many areas of life.

Quality of Attention = Quality of Output: Peak performance requires intense focus during specific periods rather than constant grinding. Most elite performers identify 3-5 peak hours per day for their most important work, then structure everything else - recovery, reflection, preparation - to maximize those hours. This isn't about working less; it's about understanding that quality of attention determines quality of output. One hour of truly focused work often achieves more than eight hours of scattered effort.

Identifying Underlying Patterns: Learning happens faster when you can recognize universal principles across different domains. Rather than treating each field as separate, look for underlying patterns - how chess teaches you about managing tension, how martial arts reveal principles of using opponents' energy, how ocean sports demonstrate the futility of trying to control the uncontrollable. This interconnected thinking accelerates learning and leads to deeper insights than staying within the boundaries of a single domain.

Making Time: Great performers develop specific practices to protect their mind's creative and analytical powers. They start their day capturing insights before checking any devices. They identify their most important question or challenge before sleep, letting it process unconsciously. They deliberately step away from stimulus-response patterns throughout the day, creating space for deeper thought and insight. These aren't just productivity tips - they're ways of maintaining mental clarity and creative power in a world that constantly pulls us toward distraction and shallow thinking.

4. Diverging Trajectories: WILTW / 13D had an enlightening piece about the diverging trajectories of men and women.

The past few decades have seen a dramatic reversal in gender achievement gaps, particularly in education and economics. Women now surpass men in college completion by 15% - a complete flip from 1972 when men led by 13%.

This educational advantage has translated into economic gains, with women being primary breadwinners in 41% of U.S. households. Meanwhile, men without college degrees are earning less than they did in 1979 when adjusted for inflation, marking a significant decline in traditional male economic power.

This shift has contributed to a deep crisis of purpose and identity among men, particularly visible in alarming social isolation statistics.

Nearly two-thirds of men aged 18-30 report having no close relationships, and a quarter haven't left their homes in over a week. The economic displacement has affected family structures - as men's prospects decline, marriage rates fall and father absence rises, with one in four fathers now living apart from their children. This creates an intergenerational cycle of disadvantage, particularly affecting boys who grow up without father figures.

Several systemic solutions to address these challenges:

In education, proposals include starting boys a year later than girls to account for slower brain development and increasing the percentage of male teachers beyond the current 23% in K-12 schools. In the workforce, there's a push to guide men into growing HEAL sectors (health, education, administration, literacy) - similar to successful initiatives that increased women's participation in STEM fields.

These solutions aren't about reversing women's gains but rather about creating new opportunities for men to find purpose and success in the modern economy.

A great book on this subject that we discussed in April 2023 is Of Boys and Men.

5. What is well priced into the market already

B. Synchronicity

What if the universe is talking to you and sending you messages daily?

At the beginning of the year I told you that I would be exploring living holistically and using my right brain more. A related idea to this is being connected to the universe and finding flow.

I explored Synchronicity in the last few weeks.

Carl Jung defined synchronicity as "meaningful coincidences", where events in the external world coincide meaningfully with psychological states of mind, without a causal relationship.

Examples of Synchronistic Events and Their Significance:

Thinking of someone and then unexpectedly encountering them.
Repeatedly seeing significant numbers, names, or symbols.
Hearing a song that perfectly relates to one's current life situation.
Meeting the right person at the right time for a significant relationship or opportunity.

Jung believed these events were not random occurrences, but manifestations of a deeper order in the universe. He proposed that synchronicity connects the individual's personal unconscious with the collective unconscious, creating meaningful links between inner experiences and outer events.

These events are significant because they often provide guidance, insight, or confirmation during important life moments, potentially catalysing psychological growth and transformation.

The Relationship Between Synchronicity and Quantum Physics:

Carl Jung and physicist Wolfgang Pauli explored connections between synchronicity and quantum physics.

Quantum entanglement and non-locality may provide a scientific basis for understanding synchronicity.
Both quantum physics and synchronicity challenge traditional notions of causality and suggest a more interconnected universe.
The observer effect in quantum physics aligns with the idea that consciousness plays a role in shaping reality, a concept central to synchronicity.

Why and How Synchronicity can be a powerful tool for personal development:

It encourages individuals to explore the deeper meaning of events in their lives.
Synchronistic events often occur during times of psychological transformation or growth and can provide guidance and confirmation during important life decisions.
Engaging with synchronicities can foster a sense of connection to a larger, meaningful universe.

What I am Doing To Recognise and Interpret Synchronicities:

Cultivate mindfulness and present-moment awareness.
Pay attention to recurring patterns, symbols, or themes in my life.
Trust my intuition and bodily sensations when encountering potential synchronicities.
Practice discernment by pausing and reflecting before acting on perceived synchronicities.
Remain open to the possibility of meaningful coincidences in my daily life.

Paying attention to meaningful coincidences can help guide decisions and deepen connection with life's flow.

This is a good book to start with: The Playful Universe.

In this video, Scientist Marjorie Woollacott (one of the editors of The Playful Universe) describes the beauty, wonder and fun of the conscious universe in which each of us is embedded and connected.

C. The Science and Technology Section.

The only thing worth talking about in technology this week is DeepSeek.

The release of their models sent shockwaves through the tech and investment communities.

I probably received 25 different emails and documents about DeepSeek this week, and I am sure you did too. I will try to summarise the 7 key ideas from the best 10 documents into one place.

What Happened: DeepSeek's release of highly performant and efficient open-source large language models (LLMs), notably DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1, challenges the existing paradigm dominated by companies like OpenAI and Nvidia.

These models demonstrate significant cost and efficiency advantages, primarily through innovative architectural approaches and hardware optimisations.

This has led to a reassessment of the AI landscape, impacting hardware manufacturers, software companies, and the overall investment outlook. Key concerns have emerged around the cost of AI, the validity of benchmarks and the impact on existing market leaders.

Key Themes and Ideas:

DeepSeek's Disruptive Efficiency:

Lower Training Costs: DeepSeek’s models have showcased dramatically lower training costs compared to similar sized open source models, most notably LLaMA. The DeepSeek V3 model trained for approximately 2.7 million GPU hours on H800 GPUs, a fraction of the 30.84 million hours used by LLaMA 405B.

“For example, V3 required ~2.7M GPU hours… to pre-train, only ~9% of the compute required to pre-train the open-source similarly-sized LLaMA 405B model” (Bernstein)
Inference Optimization: DeepSeek has achieved low inference costs through techniques like Multi-Head Latent Attention (MLA) which drastically reduces the memory requirements of a query, meaning less hardware is required. They also leverage FP8 precision for calculations.
"MLA is a key innovation responsible for a significant reduction in the inference price for DeepSeek. The reason is MLA reduces the amount of KV Cache required per query by about 93.3% versus standard attention." (SemiAnalysis)
Mixture of Experts (MoE): DeepSeek models use a Mixture of Experts architecture, with 671 billion parameters total, but only 37 billion active for any given request. This allows for complex modelling whilst requiring less computation.

Technical Innovations:

DualPipe Algorithm: DeepSeek improved H800 performance using a 'DualPipe' parallel communication algorithm and other techniques to minimise the need for communication between the GPUs.
Group Policy Reinforcement (GRPO): Unlike typical reinforcement learning, DeepSeek employs GRPO, which assesses the coherence of output instead of using labelled data, boosting efficiency.
“DeepSeek did not employ a typical labeled data reinforcement learning framework…they utilized a group policy framework (GRPO) which effectively examines the coherence of output instead of labeling data – improving efficiency.” (Weiss Harrington)
Reinforcement Learning (RL) without Human Feedback: R1-Zero is trained solely using reinforcement learning, not human feedback, achieving impressive reasoning abilities through reward functions that give scores for the correct answer and the correct chain of thought.
"DeepSeek gave the model a set of math, code, and logic questions, and set two reward functions: one for the right answer, and one for the right format that utilized a thinking process.” (Stratechery)
Distillation: DeepSeek uses distillation techniques, which is training a smaller ‘student’ model to replicate the outputs of a larger ‘teacher’ model.

Impact on Hardware Companies (Nvidia):

Challenge to GPU Dominance: DeepSeek's efficiency challenges Nvidia's dominance in AI compute, as they can achieve strong performance with lower GPU use.
"The opinion bandied about all weekend on social media that deepseek means we never need NVDA chips again is wrong. However, locally run distilled models are going to be a bigger thing. This can be bearish for NVDA"(Citrini).
Optimization vs. Brute Force: DeepSeek's success suggests that optimisation may be a more effective route than simply buying more and more powerful hardware.
"The route of least resistance has simply been to pay Nvidia. DeepSeek, however, just demonstrated that another route is available: heavy optimization can produce remarkable results on weaker hardware and with lower memory bandwidth; simply paying Nvidia more isn't the only way to make better models." (Stratechery)
Nvidia’s Moats: While Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem remains a moat, competitors like Groq, Cerebras, and in-house teams at companies like Apple and Google are gaining traction, particularly in inference.
"While the company still dominates much of the AI market—largely because of its CUDA ecosystem and its ability to stitch multiple GPUs into a single virtual supercomputer—it now faces a pack of competitors." (Azhar).
Inference as a Growth Driver: The focus could shift to hardware optimised for inference, potentially benefiting AMD.

Impact on Software Companies:

Democratization of AI: Cheaper and better models democratize access to AI capabilities, accelerating its application in software.
Software Beneficiaries: Companies like Microsoft, Palantir and Salesforce may benefit from reduced costs and improved AI tools.
"While advancements in Small Language Models (SMLs) are detrimental to hardware companies and energy producers in the short run, we were surprised to see software companies sell off in tandem. Microsoft (MSFT), for example, is a huge beneficiary of smaller, faster models as they will greatly enhance their Copilot services." (Weiss Harrington)
Agentic AI: The commoditization of LLMs is a precursor to agentic AI, which could create a new layer over existing applications, causing the market to move from Infrastructure>Implemeters>Innovators to Enablers>Executors>Ecosystem.
Open Source vs. Closed Source:Open Source Benefits: DeepSeek's open-source models are driving innovation, with other firms quickly adopting these architectures. It may mean we see fewer new models, rather "these systems will train each other at scale, continuously refining & recursively self-improving" (Citrini).
Challenges to Closed Model Providers: The ability to replicate a model’s outputs at a lower cost raises concerns about how defensible the position of major closed model providers is. There may also be concerns about data ownership.
"Given ongoing legal wrangling about training data ownership, it raises a thorny question for all major AI labs: how defensible is your position if someone can simply replicate your model’s outputs at a lower price?" (Azhar).
Distillation Concerns: Distillation is seen as widespread with many companies doing it but is violating terms of service. There may be more aggressive legal and technical crackdowns as a result of DeepSeek's approach.

The Geopolitical Angle:

China's AI Prowess: DeepSeek is showcasing a significant leap in Chinese AI development in the face of US chip bans.
Chip Ban Limitations: The effectiveness of the US chip ban is questioned, as DeepSeek has innovated around the restrictions, and has managed to utilise H800 chips, circumventing the need for H100 chips which were included in the ban. It is thought DeepSeek has 50,000 Hopper GPUs in total.
"The easiest argument to make is that the importance of the chip ban has only been accentuated given the U.S.'s rapidly evaporating lead in software. Software and knowhow can't be embargoed — we've had these debates and realizations before — but chips are physical objects and the U.S. is justified in keeping them away from China." (Stratechery)
Export Controls: There may be further export controls implemented, given future models will require more GPUs to develop, especially if US ambition is to be number one.

Market Reaction & Investment Implications:

Overreaction & Rebound: The market initially overreacted with a massive tech sell-off, but has since stabilized, as investors realize the impact of cost effective models driving growth.
“crazy.” $600 billion was wiped from Nvidia alone, the single largest single-day sell-off in history. They’ve since stabilised somewhat. Chipmakers like Nvidia and ASML—both initially hammered by DeepSeek-induced jitters—have rebounded. Investors quickly realized that making the most capable AI models 90% cheaper is undoubtedly going to fuel more AI adoption. (Azhar)
Uncertainty for Nvidia: While not a "Nvidia Killer" DeepSeek does reduce near-term growth expectations and causes increased uncertainty.
"At a minimum DeepSeek's efficiency and broad availability cast significant doubt on the most optimistic Nvidia growth story, at least in the near term." (Stratechery)
Phase 1 to Phase 2 shift: There is a trend to move away from "phase 1" beneficiaries and towards phase 2, such as software and agentic AI.
Jevons Paradox: The lower costs could lead to a large increase in demand which might mean capex budgets stay the same but models are better for the money. This could end up being good for hardware providers like Nvidia.
"Perhaps open-source and distilled reasoning models drive even more AI upstarts, any potential gains in compute efficiency end up demand rises to more than fill capacity." (Citrini)

The Need for Critical Evaluation:

Benchmark Limitations: The reports urge scepticism on DeepSeek's benchmark results with concerns that some models may have been trained on questions they are being tested on, inflating performance.
"Several studies have shown simply changing the names of people in mathematical reasoning question lowers the performance on many language models, suggesting they were trained on the benchmark questions." (Weiss Harrington).
Data Concerns: Many concerns have been raised about the quality of the data used to train AI models, and if this is properly accounted for in tests.

Conclusion:

DeepSeek's emergence marks a significant shift in the AI landscape. Its efficient models are challenging the status quo and prompting a re-evaluation of both hardware and software strategies. While Nvidia's position is under scrutiny, the overall trend points towards greater democratization of AI with faster innovation and lower costs, which will benefit downstream software companies. There is a strong possibility that distillation and open-sourcing will continue to disrupt the market.