The Curious Mind: Marko on Markets, Citrini on White Collar Recession, Ovitz On Building Momentum, Jung's Map Of The Soul, Charts You Might Have Missed.....
April 11 2025
I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.
If you missed last week’s discussion: Bessent on Tariffs, Naval on The BIG Questions, Intelligence Explosion, The Art of Aging Well, The Business of Defence, Fiscal Is All That Matters, My Framework for Time Management..
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
This week’s email will be a little short since we took a family holiday to Rome and Venice. I hope you are enjoying a good break.
Quotes I Am Thinking About:
“Happiness will never come to those who fail to appreciate what they already have.”
- Buddha
"The 2-step process for exceptional results:
Spend a little time each day thinking about the highest leverage activity available to you.
Spend a little time each day working on it.”
- James Clear
“Life shrinks or expands according to one's courage.”
- Anaïs Nin
“There is nothing to writing. All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”
- Ernest Hemingway
“The privilege of a lifetime is to become who you truly are”
- Carl Jung
A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out
1. The Markets Misread Trump
Are Trump’s dramatic tariffs simply a negotiation tactic rather than an intentional trade war? Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research explained why markets have misunderstood Trump’s tariff policy from the beginning and what deeper macroeconomic risks investors should actually be focused on.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
Trump’s Negotiation Strategy: employs dramatic opening demands before settling for modest gains. His recent global tariff announcements represent tactical positioning rather than fixed policy. As Papic colorfully describes, "Trump asks for an escalator to the moon but ends up with a ladder to his roof"—securing incremental advantages while creating the impression of concessions from trading partners.
Multipolar Economic Order: means nations compete economically regardless of military alliances. Unlike the Cold War's binary alignment, countries now pursue economic self-interest even when politically aligned. Trump's aggressive tariff approach risks isolating America precisely when flexibility is needed. Nations won't necessarily match US tariffs but may inflict targeted pain by shifting critical purchases away from American companies like Boeing or agricultural producers.
The Fiscal Trap: America faces a dangerous fiscal trap after unprecedented pandemic spending. Having expanded its deficit far more than other nations, the US lacks fiscal flexibility just when it's most needed. If tariffs trigger a recession and Trump responds with tax cuts, bond markets may refuse to cooperate—keeping yields high even during economic contraction. This "recession with uncooperative yields" scenario could devastate US equities and create conditions Papic compares to emerging market crises.
The US-Centric View: Of economic leverage misses crucial counterbalances. While America remains the world's largest consumer market, other countries have greater pain tolerance and fiscal capacity to weather trade disruptions. Most nations can stimulate their economies to offset tariff damage while precisely targeting vulnerable US industries in politically sensitive regions. This asymmetry in resilience undermines the effectiveness of America's "maximum pressure" approach.
The Global Re-Balancing: After 15 years of exceptional returns, US assets appear increasingly vulnerable to global rebalancing. The extreme valuation gap between American and international markets, combined with diminishing US fiscal advantages, creates conditions for potential investment rotation. Papic suggests investors should consider diversifying internationally, though warns that during market liquidation events, "all neat little thesis and themes are not necessarily going to work" in the short term.
2. The White Collar Recession
Hidden Forces spoke with James van Geelen, the founder of Citrini Research.
Citrini is one of the rare piece substacks I pay for given the depth of his work and this discussion didn’t disappoint. He covered the impact in this paid piece titled: Haves vs Have Nots.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
Trump's Tariff Revolution: Trump's new tariff structure (10% universal plus deficit-based additions) marks the biggest trade policy shift since the 1930s. These tariffs create a paradox: initially raising prices while potentially triggering longer-term deflation through reduced demand and supply chain disruptions. Markets are already anticipating this outcome, with inflation expectations rising while bond yields simultaneously fall, suggesting investors expect economic contraction rather than growth following implementation.
The Wealth-Effect Recession: America's wealth concentration has created a precarious economic dynamic where the top 10% now drive over half of consumer spending. This group's wealth is heavily tied to stock markets, creating a reflexive cycle where market declines directly reduce spending. Unlike previous downturns, this recession would uniquely impact knowledge workers, including many receiving financial support from Boomer parents whose reduced portfolios could trigger cascading spending cuts across generations.
AI's Acceleration During Economic Stress: AI development is approaching an inflection point with agentic capabilities allowing systems to perform complex tasks autonomously. Economic pressure would accelerate adoption as companies shift from viewing AI as "not good" to "good enough" when facing budget constraints. This transition could eliminate white-collar jobs faster than globalization affected manufacturing, as deploying AI requires no physical infrastructure - just implementation decisions that become easier to justify during downturns.
Political Realignment Through Economic Disruption: The emerging economic landscape could fundamentally reshape political coalitions. Just as manufacturing job losses drove traditionally Democratic rust belt workers toward Republicans, AI-driven white-collar displacement could transform Democratic strongholds like coastal cities. This parallel suggests we may see political movements centered around economic security rather than current ideological divides, potentially leading both parties to adopt increasingly labor-focused policies.
Navigating Investment in Policy-Driven Markets: Government policy has become the dominant market driver, replacing the central bank focus of previous years. This creates investment opportunities for those who analyze fiscal initiatives like Europe's competitiveness push or sector-specific industrial policies. The most profitable approach involves identifying beneficiaries before consensus forms, while understanding market psychology where promises and reality are constantly rebalanced through cycles of enthusiasm and disillusionment.
3. Five Principles for Building Unstoppable Momentum
Invest Like the Best spoke to Michael Ovitz. Michael is the legendary talent agent and co-founder of CAA, or Creative Artists Agency. Michael started CAA in 1975 and over the next 20 years built it into the world's most formidable talent agency, changing Hollywood forever.
He shares his insights into how he identifies exceptional people across diverse fields, from Hollywood directors like Steven Spielberg, to tech founders like Alex Karp of Palantir, and venture capitalists like Marc Andreessen.
The 5 BIG IDEAS:
The Secret Of Exceptional Talent: Michael Ovitz doesn't evaluate people by their résumés but by their insatiable desire to learn and improve. When he met Alex Karp before Palantir's rise, or spotted young artists like Cecily Brown, he recognized a common trait: people who approach life with "extraordinary burning desire to learn" and who "don't want to waste time." This talent-spotting acumen allowed Ovitz to build relationships with future leaders across diverse fields—from art to technology to finance—long before their potential was obvious to others.
Institutional momentum requires constant evolution: The institutions that thrive never stand still. Leaders who, as Ovitz notes, "never took no for an answer" and who respond to obstacles like "a remote control truck that when it hits a wall, bounces off and turns in the other direction."
Time management is about ruthless prioritisation: Since his twenties, Ovitz has treated time as his scarcest resource, viewing wasted time as "not a hiatus, it's a loss." His Sunday ritual—reviewing every meeting from the previous week to decide who deserves further attention—exemplifies his disciplined approach.
The Power of True Loyalty: Ovitz built his career without formal contracts, relying instead on absolute trust and loyalty. This approach allowed him to create unprecedented influence networks. This philosophy is summed up in his approach: "I want to be the best friend I can be to my friends. I want there to be no question of my loyalty to them."
The founder's mentality: True institution builders reject conventional boundaries. The common thread? As Ovitz observes, these founders share "a drive that had no end, a desire to do something different, a desire to break all the rules illegally, but to not stand on ceremony." Their success comes from refusing to accept limitations others take for granted.
B. Jung’s Map Of The Soul
Today, we live in a time of rapid change, existential uncertainty, and psychological fragmentation. I’ve been trying to explore my psyche and understand myself better. Carl Jung has been an obvious place to begin.
Jungian psychology has offered me new words and tools for understanding myself and finding meaning in life.
Carl Gustav Jung (1875–1961) was a Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst who profoundly shaped modern psychology with his pioneering contributions to the field of analytical psychology.
Initially a close collaborator of Sigmund Freud, Jung eventually diverged from Freud’s theories, developing his own unique framework that emphasized the interplay between the conscious and unconscious mind, the collective unconscious, and universal archetypes. His work extended beyond psychology, influencing disciplines such as anthropology, literature, philosophy, and religious studies.
Jung introduced concepts like extroversion and introversion, psychological types, and individuation—the lifelong process of integrating various aspects of the psyche to achieve wholeness.
Today, Jung’s ideas remain foundational in psychotherapy and continue to resonate across cultural and intellectual spheres
Murray Stein’s Jung’s Map of the Soul is a landmark text that distills Carl Gustav Jung’s profound psychological theories into an accessible and structured framework.
Thank you Dan Lawrence for the suggestion.
Stein’s work serves as both a guide for newcomers to Jungian psychology and a rich resource for those already familiar with Jung’s ideas. By presenting Jung’s theories as a “map,” Stein provides readers with a tool for navigating the complexities of the human psyche and understanding the journey toward self-realisation.
I finished the book a few weeks ago and will try to summarise the key ideas.
Introduction: The Soul as a Map
Stein begins by introducing Jung’s central premise: the psyche (or soul) is the essence of human existence, encompassing consciousness, unconsciousness, and everything in between.
For Jung, understanding the psyche is not merely an intellectual exercise—it is essential for personal growth and healing. Stein likens Jung’s theories to a map that helps individuals navigate their inner world, confront challenges, and move toward wholeness.
At its heart, Jungian psychology revolves around individuation—the process of integrating all aspects of the psyche into a unified whole. This journey requires engaging with both conscious and unconscious elements of the self, reconciling opposites within the psyche, and striving toward what Jung called the Self: the archetype of wholeness.
The Structure of the Psyche:
One of Jung’s most significant contributions to psychology is his model of the psyche. Stein carefully unpacks this structure, explaining its three primary components:
1. The Ego: The Center of Consciousness
The ego represents our conscious awareness—our sense of identity and ability to navigate daily life. It is where we experience ourselves as “I.” While essential for functioning in society, Stein emphasizes that the ego constitutes only a small portion of the psyche. Over-identification with it can lead to alienation from deeper aspects of oneself.
2. The Personal Unconscious: The Repository of Repressed Content
Beneath consciousness lies the personal unconscious, which contains forgotten memories, repressed emotions, and unresolved conflicts unique to each individual. This layer often manifests through dreams, fantasies, or psychological symptoms. Stein explains that exploring this realm is crucial for uncovering hidden aspects of oneself.
3. The Collective Unconscious: Humanity’s Shared Heritage
At the deepest level is the collective unconscious—a universal dimension shared by all humans. This layer contains archetypes: innate patterns or symbols that shape human experience across cultures and epochs.
Archetypes are not specific images but rather fundamental structures that influence how we perceive and respond to life.
Archetypes: The Universal Templates
Archetypes are central to Jungian psychology and play a prominent role in Stein’s explanation of Jung’s map. These universal patterns emerge in myths, dreams, art, religion, and everyday life. They are psychological blueprints that shape our experiences and behaviors.
Key Archetypes Explored by Stein
The Shadow: Our Hidden Self
The Shadow represents the darker aspects of our personality—qualities we reject or repress because they conflict with our conscious self-image. These may include anger, jealousy, fear, or selfishness.
Stein explains that confronting and integrating the Shadow is essential for psychological growth; otherwise, it operates unconsciously, influencing our actions in destructive ways.
The Anima and Animus: Inner Gendered Opposites
The Anima (the feminine aspect within men) and Animus (the masculine aspect within women) represent inner opposites that exist within all individuals regardless of gender. These archetypes embody qualities traditionally associated with femininity (e.g., intuition, emotion) or masculinity (e.g., logic, assertiveness).
Engaging with these figures fosters emotional balance and enriches relationships by helping individuals understand their inner dynamics.
The Self: The Archetype of Wholeness
The Self is the ultimate goal of individuation—the archetype representing unity and harmony within the psyche. It transcends ego-consciousness and connects individuals to their deeper purpose or spiritual essence. Stein describes it as both an organising principle within the psyche and an ideal toward which we strive.
Individuation: The Journey Toward Wholeness
Individuation is at the heart of Jungian psychology—a lifelong process through which individuals integrate all aspects of their psyche into a cohesive whole. Stein emphasizes that this journey is not about achieving perfection but about becoming one’s authentic self.
Stages in Individuation
Stein outlines several key stages in this transformative process:
Encountering the Shadow: Recognizing repressed aspects of oneself.
Engaging with Archetypal Figures: Interacting with inner figures such as Anima/Animus.
Connecting with the Self: Aligning with one’s deeper purpose or spiritual essence.
Individuation often involves navigating tensions between opposites (e.g., conscious vs. unconscious; masculine vs. feminine).
It requires courage to confront inner conflicts while maintaining balance between individuality and connection to others.
Dreams: A Gateway to the Unconscious
Dreams are a cornerstone of Jungian psychology and play a central role in Jung’s Map of the Soul. According to Jung—and echoed by Stein—dreams serve as messages from the unconscious, offering insight into unresolved conflicts or emerging potentials.
Stein explains how dream analysis allows individuals to access symbolic material from both their personal unconscious and collective unconscious. By engaging with dream imagery through techniques like active imagination or dialogue with archetypal figures, individuals can gain valuable guidance for their individuation journey.
As an aside, if you want to explore Dreams further, watch this discussion with Dan Lawrence:
Psychological Types: Understanding Personality
Jung’s theory of psychological types provides another lens for understanding human behavior. Stein explains how Jung categorized people based on two attitudes—introversion (inward-focused) vs. extraversion (outward-focused)—and four functions:
Thinking (logical analysis),
Feeling (value-based judgment),
Sensation (perception through senses),
Intuition (perception through unconscious insight).
These types help explain differences in personality and interpersonal dynamics while offering tools for self-awareness.
Religion and Myth: Expressions of Archetypes
Stein delves into Jung’s fascination with religion and mythology as expressions of archetypal patterns within the collective unconscious. For Jung—and by extension Stein—religious symbols are powerful tools for addressing existential questions about meaning, purpose, and transformation.
While Jung did not advocate adherence to specific religious doctrines, he recognized their psychological value in connecting individuals to transcendent dimensions of existence.
Healing Through Integration
A recurring theme in Jung’s Map of the Soul is healing through integration—bringing together fragmented parts of oneself into a harmonious whole. This process often involves reconciling opposites within the psyche (e.g., light vs. shadow; conscious vs. unconscious).
C. Charts and News You Might Have Missed:
1. How Much of the Tariff Impacts can be passed on?
H/T
2. How to Solve Any Problems :-)
3. Happiness is About Asking The Right Questions:
Believe it or not, that “♡ Like” button is a big deal – it serves as a proxy to new visitors of this publication’s value. If you got value out of reading, please let others know!
Re-watched this old Val Kilmer (RIP) classic from 1997.