The Curious Mind: The VIBE Shift, Peter Thiel, Finding Your Super Power, Damodaran on Markets, Milei on Change, Hidden Potential, Becoming Limitless....

November 20, 2024

Nov 20, 2024

I am sharing this weekly email with you because I count you in the group of people I learn from and enjoy being around.

What did you enjoy learning this week?

If you missed last week’s discussion: Pippa's Unconventional Insights, Marko on Trump 2.0, China Stimulus Reality, Chris Miller on Chips, How To Read A Book, Code Breaker, Blue Ocean Strategy, What To Expect in Crypto...

This email takes many hours to put together, including hours of sourcing, curating and writing. If it is helpful to you, then do me a favor and hit the “heart” button so I know it’s useful to you.

Quotes I Am Thinking About:

“When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.”

- Wayne Dyer

“Power is the ability to define. He who can define you has power over you.”

- Stokely Carmichael

“What people say, what people do, and what they say they do are entirely different things.”

- Margaret Mead

A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out:

1. VIBE SHIFT: I’ve been thinking about the cultural shift happening before our eyes.

It’s not populism, it’s not anarcho-capitalism, it’s not a move from Left to Right. It’s something else. Something bigger and more profound.

This post by Ted Gioia titled: 15 Observations on the New Phase in Cultural Conflict captures what’s happening well.

The BIG IDEA:

Modern cultural conflict is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from traditional left-right political divisions to a more potent vertical "down-versus-up" dynamic, as presciently outlined by José Ortega y Gasset in 1929.

This restructuring manifests through highly energized mass movements of dissenters (the "Downs") who, despite diverse ideological backgrounds—from Black Lives Matter to crypto enthusiasts to populist groups—share a common antagonism toward a perceived elite class (the "Ups").

The conflict transcends economic status, being primarily attitudinal, forcing established figures like politicians, CEOs, and celebrities to desperately rebrand themselves as outsiders to maintain legitimacy.

This vertical tension is revolutionizing cultural institutions: traditional "Up" platforms hemorrhage influence while seemingly chaotic "Down" spaces like TikTok and grassroots media capture unprecedented cultural energy.

Most significantly, these disparate "Down" movements, though ideologically diverse, demonstrate a growing capacity to form powerful impromptu coalitions, united primarily by their shared opposition to elite authority—suggesting a fundamental reshaping of future social and political landscapes.

Feels a lot like the Fourth Turning…..

I think Trump may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretenses. It doesn't necessarly mean that he knows this, or that he is considering any great alterative. It could just be an accident.'

- Henry Kissinger, in a 2018 FT interview

Good twitter summary here.

What could all this mean for innovation?

Packy McCormick always does a good job of capturing the Silicon Valley zeitgeist, and he does it again in this piece titled: The Trump Bubble.

He writes that Trump’s victory has potentially initiated a unique "inflection bubble" focused on upgrading America's capacity for innovation through government reform.

Unlike typical financial bubbles, this "Trump Bubble" is characterized by concentrated optimism about reducing bureaucratic friction, exemplified by the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. He argues this has created a powerful self-reinforcing cycle: the belief that building will become easier is attracting unprecedented talent and capital to both government reform and ambitious private sector projects, which increases the likelihood of success and spawns additional productive bubbles across industries.

This dynamic could represent a historic opportunity to accelerate American progress through the convergence of government streamlining and entrepreneurial energy.

“Fixing the machine that builds the machines that builds the machines.”

2. KNOW YOUR SUPERPOWER: Adam Karr’s journey to leading a $39 billion investment firm is an inspiring story of resilience, long-term investing, and a framework for success in life and business.

Adam is the President and Portfolio Manager at Orbis Investments. Prior to Orbis, Karr was a partner at Palladium Equity and a financial analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin, and Jenrette.

In conversation with Shane Parrish of The Knowledge Project, Adam speaks about understanding your "superpowers"—those things that come naturally to you but might challenge others—and using them to fight unfair fights where your strengths shine.

The 5 BIG IDEAS:

Game Selection and Strategic Obsession: The cornerstone of exceptional performance is selecting the right game to play - not just any game you can be good at, but one where your natural inclinations create compounding advantages over time. This means identifying where your authentic obsessions align with valuable opportunities. The key insight is that obsession functions as a powerful competitive moat - when you're genuinely fascinated by something, you'll naturally go deeper than others who are operating purely from discipline.
The Blueprint Methodology: Success begins with systematic imitation before evolving into innovation. Rather than trying to be original from day one, start by deeply studying those who've mastered your domain. But this isn't surface-level copying - it means understanding their decision frameworks, studying how they adapted to different conditions, and identifying which principles are timeless versus contextual.
The Magic in the Last 5%: True competitive advantage comes from pushing beyond conventional analysis to reach insights others miss. This means doing the exhaustive work to remove every layer of filtration between you and primary sources, challenging accepted narratives through deep investigation, and verifying critical assumptions personally. The key is developing judgment about when this extra effort will yield decisive insights versus when it won't meaningfully improve decision-making.
Positioning Over Prediction: Sustainable success comes from positioning yourself to benefit from multiple scenarios rather than betting on specific predictions. This means maintaining the financial and emotional reserves to act opportunistically, structuring your operations to be resilient to various stresses, and creating optionality in your approach.
Comprehensive Alignment: Long-term outperformance requires complete synchronization between your stated strategy and every aspect of your operation - from team selection and culture to client relationships and incentive structures. The key insight is that misalignment in any major area can undermine even the best strategy.

3. LIFE CYCLE, INNOVATION AND ESG: Prof. Aswath Damodaran was on the Meb Faber show discussing his new book, Global Innovation, and the ESG Paradox.

Prof. Damodaran is a Professor of Finance at the Stern school of business at NYU. He’s written close to 20 books and writes a great blog on valuation: Musings on Markets.

The 3 BIG IDEAS:

The Innovation Geography Paradox: The United States' dominance in scaling successful startups reveals a complex truth about innovation ecosystems. While many countries can generate startups and even raise capital, the U.S. uniquely enables young companies to challenge and eventually surpass established players. This distinction is crucial - India's emerging capability in this area highlights how it's not about initial innovation, but rather the complete system that allows companies to grow from startup to global leader. The struggle of European markets, despite their wealth and education systems, shows that merely having resources isn't enough - the ecosystem must embrace disruption and creative destruction.
The Life Cycle Reality: Corporate evolution follows predictable patterns that companies ignore at their peril. While the market celebrates exceptions like Microsoft's cloud transformation or Apple's device renaissance, these rare successes often mask a broader truth: most attempts at corporate rejuvenation fail. The recent dividend initiations by Meta and Google represent a mature understanding of corporate life cycles - an acceptance that returns of capital can be more valuable than chasing growth. This "act your age" principle extends beyond just capital allocation to strategic decisions, acquisition policies, and investment priorities.
The ESG Paradox: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing demonstrates how well-intentioned frameworks can create perverse incentives. The movement's fundamental flaw lies in its attempt to make companies accountable to all stakeholders simultaneously, effectively making them accountable to none. The measurable disconnect between massive ESG fund flows and minimal progress on targeted issues suggests the framework may actually impede meaningful change by substituting box-checking for real reform. This raises deeper questions about how to align corporate behavior with societal goals without creating gameable metrics.

4. CREATING CHANGE: Javier Milei is doing unimaginable things in Argentina, and he may singlehandedly change the direction of Latin America.

He spoke with Lex Fridman this week - just the YouTube video is approaching 1M views in 24 hours.

Great twitter summary here.

B. The Science and Technology Section:

1. The internet is full of interesting people. Gwern is one of those unique people who I had not heard of until recently but was blown away as I learnt more and read his body of work.

What a MEGA brain!

What makes Gwern even more unique is that Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer - he is totally anonymous!

The 5 BIG IDEAS:

Anonymity functions as an intellectual equalizer: stripping away preconceptions and forcing engagement with ideas rather than identity. "The biggest benefit is that you get a hearing at all," Gwern explains. Without biographical baggage or status markers, readers must wrestle with the content itself before forming judgments.
The path to artificial intelligence was visible in scaling laws, not algorithmic breakthroughs. Gwern recognized that simply adding more compute and data to neural networks produced increasingly capable systems. While others focused on clever algorithms, the empirical evidence showed that scale itself generated intelligence - a pattern that predicted the rise of large language models.
Great insight comes from patient accumulation rather than forced brilliance. Gwern's process involves daily "gardening" - reading widely and taking notes - until ideas naturally crystallize into essays. "You don't harvest every day," he explains. "You have to tend the garden for a long time in between harvests." This requires resisting the urge to produce prematurely.
Intelligence may be fundamentally about search rather than special algorithms. Like evolution trying countless genetic combinations, both human and artificial intelligence work by searching through many possible solutions. This explains why we can extract specialized skills from general intelligence, and why intelligence took so long to evolve - simpler hard-coded solutions often work better.
Deep intellectual work demands deep sacrifices. Living on $12,000 per year in a remote location, Gwern has optimized his entire life around reading and writing. While this enables unique contributions, it means forgoing career advancement, travel, and typical social life. His monastic lifestyle highlights how sustained focus often requires giving up breadth of experience.

C. Hidden Potential by Adam Grant

How do we bring out the best in ourselves, our teams and our children?

Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things by Adam Grant makes the argument that success is shaped more by character skills, resilience, and the opportunities we create than by innate talent alone.

Through a blend of research, anecdotes, and practical strategies, Adam reveals how individuals can unlock their hidden potential.

The 3 BIG IDEAS:

The Power of Character Skills: Grant emphasizes that character traits—such as grit, determination, and proactivity are crucial for achieving success.
Sustaining Motivation: Maintaining motivation over the long haul is essential for reaching ambitious goals. Grant highlights that progress can feel non-linear and often involves setbacks.
Creating Opportunity Systems: While talent may be evenly distributed, opportunities are not. Grant advocates for building environments that foster growth and collaboration. He stresses the importance of diverse mentorship and supportive networks in unlocking individual potential.

The 3 Practical Strategies:

Embrace Discomfort Stepping outside one’s comfort zone is vital for growth. Grant encourages readers to view discomfort as an opportunity for learning and resilience, helping them tackle challenges more effectively. In our family, I started telling the kids: “Falling is fun” when they were 3 years old.
Brainwriting Over Brainstorming: To enhance group creativity, Grant recommends "brainwriting," where participants share ideas in writing instead of verbally. This method promotes inclusivity and often leads to more innovative solutions.
Establish a Mistake Budget: Grant introduces the concept of a "mistake budget," which encourages individuals to set goals for acceptable failures. This approach allows for learning from mistakes without fear of negative consequences, fostering a culture of experimentation. When the kids were young, we made a rule that you had make at least 5 mistakes everyday.

D. Limitless by Jim Kwik

Ever wanted to upgrade your brain and learn faster?

In Limitless: Upgrade Your Brain, Learn Anything Faster, and Unlock Your Exceptional Life, Jim Kwik presents a transformative approach to learning and personal development.

It’s a good one to discuss with your kids too.

The book is designed to help you break free from mental constraints and unlock your full potential through a powerful framework centered on 3 key elements: Mindset, Motivation, and Methods.

1. Mindset (The What):

He believes that our beliefs about our intelligence and abilities can significantly limit our potential. He encourages you to adopt a growth mindset, which states that intelligence can be developed through effort and learning.

By challenging self-imposed limitations and reframing negative beliefs, individuals can expand their cognitive capabilities and open themselves to new possibilities.

2. Motivation (The Why):

Motivation is crucial for sustained learning and achievement. He breaks it down into three components:

Purpose: Understanding why you want to learn or achieve something.
Energy: Maintaining physical and mental vitality through proper nutrition, exercise, and sleep.
Small Steps: Taking actionable, incremental steps towards your goals to build momentum.

3. Methods (The How):

He offers several practical methods to improve learning and cognitive performance. Here are some of the key techniques:

1. FASTER Method (a little like Feynman)

F (Forget): Temporarily forget what you think you know about the topic. Approach it with a beginner's mind to avoid preconceptions.
A (Act): Take active steps in your learning process. This could involve note-taking, discussing, or practicing.
S (State): Manage your emotional and physical state. Ensure you're in a positive, focused mindset for optimal learning.
T (Teach): Explain the concept to someone else, even if imaginary. This reinforces your understanding.
E (Enter): Input the information into your memory through various means like writing, speaking, or creating mind maps.
R (Review): Regularly revisit the material to strengthen neural connections and improve long-term retention.

2. Speed Reading Techniques

Finger Pacing: Use your finger or a pointer to guide your eyes across the page, maintaining a steady pace.
Expand Visual Field: Practice seeing more words in your peripheral vision to increase reading speed.
Minimize Subvocalization: Reduce the habit of saying words in your head as you read by using a counter-stimulus like humming.

3. Visualization Techniques

Mind Mapping: Create visual diagrams to connect ideas and concepts.
Mental Movies: Construct vivid, multi-sensory mental images of the information you're trying to remember.
Associative Visualization: Link new information to vivid, unusual images to make it more memorable.

4. Lifestyle Optimization for Brain Health

Nutrition: Incorporate brain-boosting foods like blueberries, fatty fish, nuts, and dark leafy greens into your diet.
Exercise: Aim for at least 150 minutes of moderate aerobic activity or 75 minutes of vigorous activity per week.
Sleep Hygiene: Establish a consistent sleep schedule, aiming for 7-9 hours per night. Create a relaxing bedtime routine and avoid screens before sleep.

5. Active Recall & Spaced Repetition

Instead of passively re-reading material, actively test yourself on the content.
Use flashcards, practice tests, or explain concepts aloud without referring to notes.
Review information at gradually increasing intervals (e.g., after 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks, etc.).

P.S. Could you do me a favor ? This email takes many hours to put together, including hours of sourcing, curating and writing. If it is helpful to you, then do me a favor and hit the “heart” button so I know it’s useful to you.

This is a beautiful movie, and it had me crying at the end.

The Curious Mind