“In their calmer moments, investors recognise their inability to know what the future holds. In moments of extreme panic or enthusiasm, however, they become remarkably bold in their predictions: they act as though uncertainty has vanished and the outcome is beyond doubt. Reality is abruptly transformed into that hypothetical future where the outcome is known. These are rare occasions, but they are unforgettable: major tops and bottoms in markets are defined by this switch from doubt to certainty.”

- Peter Bernstein

“Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses nature leads, or you shall learn nothing. I have only begun to learn content and peace of mind since I have resolved at all risks to do this.”

- Thomas Huxley

“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.”

- Henry David Thoreau

A. A Few Things Worth Checking Out

1.  In markets, it is often said that while history doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes. In this great Bankless podcast featuring historian turned investor (at 6ixth Event) Josh Rosenthal covers exactly that – looking at the possibility that we may be living through revolutionary times, with the printing press and double-entry bookkeeping – arguably the two most important innovations that drove expression and financial growth in the Renaissance – seeing their modern counterparts in the Internet and Blockchains respectively.

This was mind opening and perspective changing and really brought historical context to what the combination of what peer-to-peer information sharing (the internet) and peer-to-peer value transfer (blockchains / cryptocurrencies) could mean for society.

2. Zhang-Lei is the founder and Chairman of Hillhouse Capital, one of the best asset managers in China. He wrote a book last year (in Mandarin) on his journey, entrepreneurship and investing. Here’s a great tweet storm of the big ideas:

Rui Ma 马睿 @ruima

1/ One of the most famous investors in China is low-key Zhang Lei, founder of Hillhouse Capital, $60Bn long-term asset manager investing across multiple stages and industries. He published his first book "Value" last yr. It's excellent & I'll have to post multiple threads on it.

May 11th 2021

266 Retweets1,553 Likes

3. Adam Robinson is one of my favourite people. I always learn a lot from him and he shared his approach to markets, which I summarised in this tweet storm.

Ahmed Husain @1ahmedh1

@IAmAdamRobinson always delights. I listen to everything he says twice and this chat is one of his best. How Adam Robinson outsmarts the market, his views on systems and The Great GameIn this episode of Opto Sessions, industry legend Adam Robinson demystifies some of the elements of his philosophy that hedge funds hold in such high regard.cmcmarkets.com

May 10th 2021

9 Likes

4. Packy McCormick writes the Not Boring letter - and his latest this week on why & how to play and win the Great Online Game was an awesome read.

5. How to have a high returning VC fund by Frank Rotman of QED Investors. Thank you Yaser.

Frank Rotman @fintechjunkie

1/26: It’s hard to produce a 3X+ #VC fund. It’s much harder to do this consistently. Our first 4 funds are mature enough to know where they’ll end up and all of them will handily beat this benchmark. I reviewed our portfolio this morning and jotted down 12 notes. Shared:

January 8th 2021

314 Retweets1,818 Likes

6. What is DeFi in 3 mins.

7. Great presentation on NFT’s.

8. Finished these two great books on the history and intellectual underpinnings of Bitcoin and crypto currencies. Both highly recommended. Thank you Yaser and Meltem for the recommendations.

9. Ming Zhao is my new favourite follow on Twitter, here are some goodies:

Ming Zhao @FabiusMercurius

🌴💰🍸⛵️ Tax Evasion For Traders & Founders: How Billionaires Pay Less Than Secretaries With tax season around the corner, here’s a compiled list of (mostly legal) hacks to reduce your future bleeding. 👇 P.S. Not a lawyer. If you’re the IRS, don’t kill the informed aggregator

May 5th 2021

99 Retweets514 Likes

Ming Zhao @FabiusMercurius

🧐How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund🧐 “Fundamentals don’t matter anymore!” I’ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.🙄 But, for those who’ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here’s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why: (real examples outlined) 👇

May 7th 2021

969 Retweets4,644 Likes

Ming Zhao @FabiusMercurius

👺12 Ways to Spot a Lying CFO👺 🤝collaboration w/ @goodalexander Stocks move on earnings, so execs will manipulate earnings. How can u spot their accounting gimmicks ahead of time? Here’s a rundown of top shenanigans execs use(d) to cook their books. Case studies included. 👇

May 1st 2021

106 Retweets544 Likes

B. A Few Things I Learnt At The Sohn Conference

The Sohn conference happened yesterday.

The two stand out sessions were John Collison of Stripe chatting with Dan Sundheim of D1 Capital.

and Bill Gurley talking to Brad Gerstner.

More at their twitter handle.

Ram Parameswaran, Octahedron Capital presented on Peloton, saying the company is an asymmetric bet that could return 4x over 5 years. “fitness is undergoing a once-in-a-generation structural shift from offline to online” - Peloton is getting increasingly affordable, each new version is cheaper than the predecessor, so younger people are using it now - “Peloton has the chance to build a Netflix-like business for free” - He’s expecting subscribers to rise 8x between now and 2025. Peloton’s stock should be worth more than $300 a share. 

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital discussed the gold rush coming in electric vehicles and is talking about the need for copper – “You don’t have to be a genius to know that if you’re building EV, storage, wind and to grow the electric grid, you need lots of copper. You need copper for wind and solar installation, for charging stations” – Quotes Goldman’s research note titled “Copper is the new oil” – The pipeline of potential new copper capacity is low, its takes a long time to create new mines. Supply is expected to fall below demand in 2024, and will lead to higher copper prices - Freeport McMoran is a pure play on the copper price, and for $3 copper, the shares of Teck are worth about C$40.

Thank you Aron.

Disclaimer: This is NOT RESEARCH (certainly not “substantive”) or any kind of INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION. Just my personal weekly views for fellow financial professionals.