Dec 1, 2023·edited Dec 1, 2023Liked by Ego Is The Enemy

Bragging razor is 100% on point in both directions hehe.

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Dec 1, 2023Liked by Ego Is The Enemy

Ahmed, your take on AI changing people's lives is interesting and while AI's massively changing my life, I think the hype is missing a couple important features.

One, there are a lot of things that are easy to see, but difficult to do. It's easy to see where AI could make changes, but how and how fast those changes will play out isn't so clear. Please see "self-driving cars", "AR/VR" and "Crypto Currencies". Ben Franklin famously said "Inertia is the strongest force in the universe". The internet changed how we get information, but libraries still exist. Email, chat apps and social media changed how we communicate, but the post office still delivers the mail. Just because new ways of doing things are developed, the old ways are not completely abandoned.

Two, the current, generative AI architecture was articulated in a 2017 in "Attention Is All You Need," published by Ashish Vaswani (https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). The widely usable version of ChatGPT is literally just over a year old. A new technology that enables new application comes along, it takes time for applications that leverage that technology to be developed. As Rex Woodbury articulated in "The Mobile Revolution vs. The AI Revolution", (https://www.digitalnative.tech/p/the-mobile-revolution-vs-the-ai-revolution) "The iPhone came out in June 2007; Uber was founded in March 2009".

My favorite example of this is how photography changed the world of painting. For thousands of years, painters had earned their living painting portraits or religious iconography. The first successful photographic process was developed by Louis Daguerre in 1837, photography studios started appearing in the 1840s. Painter's had to evolve, but it wasn't until April of 1874 that Monet, Renoir etc. had their Paris debut that ushered in the Impressionist era.

My point is simply that change takes longer than people expect. We are probably at or near the top of the AI hype cycle. Do I think AI will have a huge effect? On some people, yes; on many people... not so much. And the first company launching an application that is truly based on AI is probably a year away from being founded and probably five or six years away from being widely adopted.

Thanks, I always look forward to your email, it's the most nutritious brain candy I've found.


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Andy - love that! Agree Intertia is a strong force and change takes time. Maybe rightly so given the impact these tools and technologies have. Thank you as always for reading and engaging as a member of the Brain Trust.

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